PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR MONTHLY OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
300 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2008
30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR AUGUST 2008
BELOW WE REPEAT THE PMD WRITTEN JULY 17 AT LONG LEAD.
IN VIEW OF THE SHORT RANGE NWP RUNS WE NOW HAVE AT OUR DISPOSAL WE HAVE MADE
THE FOLLOWING ADJUSTMENT IN THE AUGUST 2008 MONTHLY TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION PREDICTION. IN AREAS WHERE NWP FOR THE FIRST 5 DAYS DID NOT
STRONGLY CONTRADICT THE LONG LEAD PREDICTION NO ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE.
TEMPERATURE. THE PREDICTED COLD CENTERED AT THE BORDER OF IA IL AND MISSOURI
HAS BEEN REMOVED BECAUSE THE NEXT 5 DAYS APPEAR TO BE EXTREMELY WARM. THIS AREA
IS NOW EC. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ADDED TO NM AND PORTIONS OF
SURROUNDING STATES - THIS IS IN LINE WITH PERSISTENCE OF A GOOD MONSOON AS WELL
AS MOST TOOLS. ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF AK WE ADDED SOME WARMTH BECAUSE THE
POSITIVE SST ANOMALIES HAVE BEEN BLOSSOMING.
PRECIPITATION. WE ADDED THREE AREAS OF ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION. TWO ARE
SUGGESTED BY NWP FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS CENTERED IN NORTHERN MAINE AND
SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. THE LATTER AREA WOULD ALSO BE PERSISTENCE OF PREVAILING
CONDITIONS AND IS ALSO IN LINE WITH MOST TOOLS. WE ALSO ADDED ABOVE MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION FOR NM PLUS PORTIONS OF SURROUNDING STATES - I.E. A CONTINUATION
OF A GOOD MONSOON. 2008 OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON DEPARTURES FROM THE 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD.
LEGEND:
CAS: CONSTRUCTIVE ANALOG ON SOIL MOISTURE
CCA: CANONICAL CORRELATION ANALYSIS
CFS: CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM
CL: CLIMATOLOGY
CONUS: CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES
ENSO: EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION
MJO: MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION
NAO: NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION
NCEP: NATIONAL CENTER FOR ENVIRONMENTAL PREDICTION
OCN: OPTIMAL CLIMATE NORMALS
SMA: SOIL MOISTURE ANALYSIS
SMLR: SCREENING MULTIPLE LINEAR REGRESSION
SOI: SOUTHERN OSCILLATION INDEX
SSTS: SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
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