PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR MONTHLY OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
830 AM EDT THU OCT 15 2009
30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR NOVEMBER 2009
A WEAK EL NINO CONTINUES ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN WITH MONTHLY SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) DEPARTURES REMAINING 0.5 TO 1.5C ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. THERE HAS BEEN SOME WAXING AND
WANING OF THE STRENGTH OF THE ANOMALIES OVER THE PAST 6 WEEKS. PRESENTLY A
WESTERLY WIND ANOMALY EVENT MAY REINFORCE THE RESERVOIR OF ABOVE AVERAGE
SUBSURFACE OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT ANOMALIES. ENSO COMPOSITES WERE CONSIDERED FOR
THIS FORECAST. SST ANOMALIES ALONG THE US COAST ARE GENERALLY SMALL OR IN
TRANSITION EVERYWHERE.
THE 0.5 MONTH LEAD TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON THE CFS
3-MONTH OUTLOOK CENTERED ON NOVEMBER, LONG LEAD STATISTICAL GUIDANCE, AND ENSO
COMPOSITES FOR OND.
THE 0.5 MONTH LEAD TEMPERATURE FORECAST FAVORS ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN
MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS AND ALASKA. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED
FOR MUCH OF TEXAS. ALTHOUGH SUBNORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS, THE CONSENSUS AMONG THE FORECAST TOOLS FOR THAT
FORECAST ARE INCONSISTENT, AND LED TO A DESIGNATION OF "EC" IN THOSE REGIONS.
THE 0.5 MONTH LEAD PRECIPITATION FORECAST FAVORS BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION
FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO MONTANA AND ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION OVER
COASTAL REGIONS OF THE GULF COAST STATES, WITH THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES IN
TEXAS AND FLORIDA.
FORECASTER: HUUG VAN DEN DOOL
NOTES: AREAS OF UNCERTAINTY THAT FORMERLY WERE LABELED CL (CLIMATOLOGICAL
PROBABILITIES) ARE NOW LABELED AS EC (EQUAL CHANCES).
AN UPDATED MONTHLY OUTLOOK... FOR NOV WILL BE ISSUED ON SAT OCTOBER 31 2009 LEGEND:
CAS: CONSTRUCTIVE ANALOG ON SOIL MOISTURE
CCA: CANONICAL CORRELATION ANALYSIS
CFS: CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM
CL: CLIMATOLOGY
CONUS: CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES
ENSO: EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION
MJO: MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION
NAO: NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION
NCEP: NATIONAL CENTER FOR ENVIRONMENTAL PREDICTION
OCN: OPTIMAL CLIMATE NORMALS
SMA: SOIL MOISTURE ANALYSIS
SMLR: SCREENING MULTIPLE LINEAR REGRESSION
SOI: SOUTHERN OSCILLATION INDEX
SSTS: SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
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