PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR MONTHLY OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
300 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2009
30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR JULY 2009
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) ANOMALIES ALONG THE EQUATOR IN THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN CURRENTLY AVERAGE AROUND 0.5C ABOVE ZERO FROM
ABOUT 160E TO THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST. THERE IS A RESERVOIR OF
MODERATELY (1 TO 2 AND LOCALLY 3 CENTIGRADE DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE)
WARM WATER BENEATH THE SURFACE ALONG THE EQUATOR, SLOPING UPWARD FROM
A DEPTH OF ABOUT 150 METERS AT 160E, TO VERY NEAR THE SURFACE AT THE
SOUTH AMERICAN COAST. PRESENTLY WESTERLY WIND ANOMALIES IN THE WESTERN PACIFIC
MAY ENHANCE WHAT APPEARS TO BE AN EL NINO IN THE MAKING. ENSO-NEUTRAL
OR BORDERLINE WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN JULY. ENSO COMPOSITES
ARE NOT USED FOR JULY. THE LONG LEAD OUTLOOK PRIMARILY REFLECTED
LONG LEAD MONTHLY STATISTICAL TOOLS, INCLUDING THE TREND OCN, CCA,
SMLR, AND CONSTRUCTED ANALOGUE ON SOIL MOISTURE ANOMALIES. IN ADDITION,
LOCAL SSTS ALONG COASTAL AREAS AS WELL AS THE CFS DYNAMICAL MONTHLY TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION PREDICTIONS WERE USED. AT ZERO LEAD - JUNE 30 2009,
THE CAS, CFS, HPC 5-DAY QPF AND VARIOUS RENDITIONS OF THE GFS WEEK 1 AND
WEEK 2 HAVE BEEN USED FOR THE UPDATE.
SSTS NEAR HAWAII AND THE US WEST COAST HAVE RETURNED TO NEAR-NORMAL
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES BUT NEAR ALASKA COLD SST ANOMALIES
PERSIST. ALONG THE EAST COAST AND THE GULF OF MEXICO SST HAS INCREASED
AS WELL.
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE LOW FREQUENCY WEATHER PATTERN
PERCEIVED TO BE IN PLACE, THE LONG LEAD TOOLS AND THE GFS WEEK 1 AND WEEK 2
PREDICTIONS. WE MADE SOME RADICAL CHANGES, THE COLD IN THE SOUTHEAST WAS REMOVED,
THE WARMTH IN THE WEST REDUCED, AND A NEW AREA OF COLD WAS INTRODUCED IN THE
NORTHEAST. THE PRECIPITATION AMENDMENTS ARE PRIMARILY BECAUSE OF RAINS EXPECTED
IN THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE UPCOMING MONTH.
THE JULY OUTLOOK CALLS FOR AN ENHANCED LIKELIHOOD ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
IN THE INTERIOR SOUTHWEST AND ALSO IN TEXAS AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THE STRIP
OF SOUTHERN WARMTH IS INTERRUPTED BY EQUAL CHANCES FOR EACH OF THE THREE
CATEGORIES IN NEW MEXICO WHERE MONSOONAL RAINS ARE EXPECTED. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FROM THE DAKOTAS TO NEW ENGLAND.
THE JULY OUTLOOK CALLS FOR INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION IN FLORIDA AND IN NEW ENGLAND, AS WELL AS A STRIP
FROM NEW MEXICO, VIA COLORADO AND KANSAS TO MISSOURI, PLUS PORTIONS OF
ADJACENT STATES. BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ONLY IN THE NORTHWEST.
AS FOR ALASKA, ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE MOST LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE
STATE EXCEPT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED FOR WESTERN ALASKA.
FORECASTER: HUUG VAN DE DOOL
NOTES: AREAS OF UNCERTAINTY THAT FORMERLY WERE LABELED CL (CLIMATOLOGICAL
PROBABILITIES) ARE NOW LABELED AS EC (EQUAL CHANCES).
THE NEXT MONTHLY OUTLOOK...FOR AUGUST 2009...WILL BE ISSUED ON THU JUL 16 2009
LEGEND:
CAS: CONSTRUCTIVE ANALOG ON SOIL MOISTURE
CCA: CANONICAL CORRELATION ANALYSIS
CFS: CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM
CL: CLIMATOLOGY
CONUS: CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES
ENSO: EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION
MJO: MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION
NAO: NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION
NCEP: NATIONAL CENTER FOR ENVIRONMENTAL PREDICTION
OCN: OPTIMAL CLIMATE NORMALS
SMA: SOIL MOISTURE ANALYSIS
SMLR: SCREENING MULTIPLE LINEAR REGRESSION
SOI: SOUTHERN OSCILLATION INDEX
SSTS: SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
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