PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR MONTHLY OUTLOOK NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2008 30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR AUGUST 2008 BELOW WE REPEAT THE PMD WRITTEN JULY 17 AT LONG LEAD. IN VIEW OF THE SHORT RANGE NWP RUNS WE NOW HAVE AT OUR DISPOSAL WE HAVE MADE THE FOLLOWING ADJUSTMENT IN THE AUGUST 2008 MONTHLY TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION PREDICTION. IN AREAS WHERE NWP FOR THE FIRST 5 DAYS DID NOT STRONGLY CONTRADICT THE LONG LEAD PREDICTION NO ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE. TEMPERATURE. THE PREDICTED COLD CENTERED AT THE BORDER OF IA IL AND MISSOURI HAS BEEN REMOVED BECAUSE THE NEXT 5 DAYS APPEAR TO BE EXTREMELY WARM. THIS AREA IS NOW EC. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ADDED TO NM AND PORTIONS OF SURROUNDING STATES - THIS IS IN LINE WITH PERSISTENCE OF A GOOD MONSOON AS WELL AS MOST TOOLS. ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF AK WE ADDED SOME WARMTH BECAUSE THE POSITIVE SST ANOMALIES HAVE BEEN BLOSSOMING. PRECIPITATION. WE ADDED THREE AREAS OF ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION. TWO ARE SUGGESTED BY NWP FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS CENTERED IN NORTHERN MAINE AND SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. THE LATTER AREA WOULD ALSO BE PERSISTENCE OF PREVAILING CONDITIONS AND IS ALSO IN LINE WITH MOST TOOLS. WE ALSO ADDED ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR NM PLUS PORTIONS OF SURROUNDING STATES - I.E. A CONTINUATION OF A GOOD MONSOON. 2008 OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON DEPARTURES FROM THE 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD. LEGEND: CAS: CONSTRUCTIVE ANALOG ON SOIL MOISTURE CCA: CANONICAL CORRELATION ANALYSIS CFS: CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM CL: CLIMATOLOGY CONUS: CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES ENSO: EL NINO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION MJO: MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION NAO: NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION NCEP: NATIONAL CENTER FOR ENVIRONMENTAL PREDICTION OCN: OPTIMAL CLIMATE NORMALS SMA: SOIL MOISTURE ANALYSIS SMLR: SCREENING MULTIPLE LINEAR REGRESSION SOI: SOUTHERN OSCILLATION INDEX SSTS: SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES |