|
Milk Prices
According to Bob Cropp's October Dairy Outlook, "The nation’s cow herd will likely continue to decline slowly in the month’s ahead. Dairy cow
slaughter has increased in recent weeks being 10 to 13% higher than year ago. But, ample
number of dairy replacements lessens the decline in cow numbers. Milk per cow may improve,
but could stay below the normal 2% annual growth. Forecasts are for higher corn and hay prices
which could keep the milk-feed price ration below 3.0 for the winter months.
The September Class III price was $12.29, the first time above $12.00 since $12.20 in February.
The October Class III price will be about the same, but unless cheese prices can recover some,
the November and December Class III prices could be lower and close to $12.00. The relatively
high dry whey price helps significantly to boast the Class III price. As we look ahead into 2007
the probability is high for milk prices to average higher than 2006 for the first half of the year
and considerably better for the last half of the year."
| 2006
Milk Futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange |
| 10-20-06 |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
Jan
07 |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
July |
Aug |
Sep |
| Class
III |
$12.32 |
$12.89 |
$13.00 |
$13.15 |
$13.10 |
$13.15 |
$13.25 |
$13.25 |
$13.35 |
$13.93 |
$14.25 |
$14.42 |
| Class
IV |
$11.40 |
$11.60 |
$11.40 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
| Butter
Futures |
$1.30 |
$1.35 |
$1.32 |
$1.34 |
$1.36 |
$1.40 |
$1.40 |
$1.40 |
$1.40 |
$1.41 |
$1.41 |
$1.43 |
Future MILC estimates may be derived from the following formula:
($13.69 - (Higher of Class III or IV price) *$0.34)
MILC-X Fact Sheet, Payment Calculations, and USDA Details are available at http://www.fsa.usda.gov/FSA/webapp?area=home&subject=prsu&topic=mpp-mi
| Current
USDA Milk Price Forecasts |
10-19-06 |
4th
Q 2006 |
1st
Q 2007 |
2nd
Q 2007 |
3rd
Q 2007 |
| Class
III Price |
$11.78 to $12.18 |
$11.59 to $12.29 |
$11.81 to $12.81 |
$12.61 to $13.61 |
| Class IV Price |
$11.08 to $11.58 |
$10.45 to $11.25 |
$10.24 to $11.34 |
$10.55 to $11.65 |
| Source:
USDA,
ERS, Livestock, Dairy & Poultry Outlook |
Historical Missouri milk prices may be found at: http://agebb.missouri.edu/dairy/mkt/index.htm
Hedging Opportunity Chart for next 12 Months http://www.uwex.edu/ces/milkmarketing/
|