Missouri Dairy Business Update Commercial Agriculture
Volume 3, Number 12
December 2003

Milk Prices

According to the latest USDA Dairy Outlook, "Overall, dairy markets are expected to be better balanced in 2004. Demand is projected to grow more than milk production, commercial stocks are expected to be smaller, and commercial exports of nonfat dry milk might substantially trim the recent surplus.

The average price of all milk in 2004 is projected to slip slightly. In general, market fundamentals, although healthier than during the preceding 2 years, are not expected to have adjusted enough to end the recent period of weak dairy prices.

However, the odds of weaker-than-expected production (or stronger-than-expected demand) triggering substantial advances across the spectrum of product prices probably are higher than since 2001."

Historical Missouri milk prices may be found at: http://agebb.missouri.edu/modbu/milkprices.htm

2003-04 Milk Futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange
12/23/2003 Dec Jan-04 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov
Class III Price $11.80 $11.64 $11.48 $11.52 $11.66 $11.63 $12.13 $12.63 $12.93 $13.50 $12.88 $12.10
Class IV Price $10.35 $10.95 $11.01                  
est. MILC pmt. $ ---- $ 0.83 $ 0.93                  
Note: Estimated MILC Payment from
http://cpdmp.cornell.edu/

Current USDA Milk Price Forecasts
12/17/03 4th Q 2003 1st Q 2004 2nd Q 2004 3rd Q 2004
Class III Price 13.15 to 13.35 10.70 to 11.20 9.95 to 10.75 10.55 to 11.55
Class IV Price 10.15 to 10.45 9.75 to 10.35 9.60 to 10.50 9.95 to 11.05
Source: USDA, ERS, Livestock, Dairy & Poultry Outlook
http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/reports/erssor/livestock/ldp-mbb/

MILC payments for December milk will be $0.00/cwt. and for January the payment will be $0.83/cwt. To view the calculations behind the MILC payments and to check the very latest MILC payments check the NE Milk Marketing Administrators website at: http://www.fmmone.com/Northeast_Order_Prices/MILC%20calculator/DMLP.htm


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