Missouri Dairy Business Update Commercial Agriculture
Volume 3, Number 11
November 2003

Milk Prices

According to the latest USDA Dairy Outlook, "The decline in total milk available and the expansion in production of other cheese were enough to hold down Cheddar cheese production, despite a large diversion from butter and nonfat dry milk.

Winter cheese prices are expected to average more than a dime higher than the very low levels of a year earlier. Cheese demand probably will recover further, and milk production is projected to be only slightly larger on a daily average basis. Also, markets for other dairy products probably will be in considerably better balance than a year earlier.

Even so, price improvement probably will be relatively limited. Although most market factors are expected to support stronger prices, the changes are not projected to be very dramatic."

Historical Missouri milk prices may be found at: http://agebb.missouri.edu/modbu/milkprices.htm

2003-04 Milk Futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange
11/25/2003 Dec Jan-04 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct  
Class III Price $11.60 $11.71 $11.43 $11.41 $11.50 $11.55 $12.03 $12.52 $12.95 $13.37 $12.78  
Class IV Price $10.12 $10.50 $10.55                  
est. MILC pmt. $ 0.00 $ 0.95 $ 0.91                  
Note: Estimated MILC Payment from
http://cpdmp.cornell.edu/

Current USDA Milk Price Forecasts
11/25/03 4th Q 2003 1st Q 2004 2nd Q 2004 3rd Q 2004
Class III Price 12.95 to 13.25 10.55 to 11.15 9.85 to 10.75 10.50 to 11.50
Class IV Price 9.95 to 10.35 9.65 to 10.35 9.50 to 10.50 9.85 to 10.95
Source: USDA, ERS, Livestock, Dairy & Poultry Outlook
http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/reports/erssor/livestock/ldp-mbb/

MILC payments for November and December milk will be $0.00/cwt. To view the calculations behind the MILC payments and to check the very latest MILC payments check the NE Milk Marketing Administrators website at: http://www.fmmone.com/Northeast_Order_Prices/MILC%20calculator/DMLP.htm


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