Missouri Dairy Business Update Commercial Agriculture
Volume 3, Number 10
October 2003

Milk Prices

According to the latest USDA Dairy Outlook, "Moderately strong cheese sales and tight supplies of milk for manufacturing have allowed cheese prices to hold, despite a major diversion of milk from butter-powder production into cheese. Wholesale Cheddar cheese prices have been largely unchanged since late July. Cheese prices may remain near current levels until milk production picks up seasonally in a few weeks. However, an early seasonal price peak still seems likely unless sales accelerate."

"Compared with the 5-year average milk per cow, this year's output grew at an annual rate of about 1.2 percent in June, July, and August. Even so, milk per cow remained relatively weak, and a solid recovery is not yet apparent. The weak milk per cow, slipping milk cow numbers, and larger apparent use of milk in other foods left supplies of milk for manufacturing substantially below a year earlier, particularly in August."

Historical Missouri milk prices may be found at: http://agebb.missouri.edu/modbu/milkprices.htm

2003 Milk Futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange
10/27/2003 Oct Nov Dec Jan-04 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept
Class III Price $14.34 $12.95 $11.94 $11.60 $11.30 $11.31 $11.29 $11.22 $11.96 $12.40 $12.75 $13.25
Class IV Price $10.20 $10.12 $10.12                  
est. MILC pmt. $ N/A $ N/A                    
Note: Estimated MILC Payment from
http://cpdmp.cornell.edu/

Current USDA Milk Price Forecasts
17-Oct-03 1st Q 2003 2nd Q 2003 3rd Q 2003 4th Q 2003
Class III Price 9.52 9.62 13.29 12.75 to 13.15
Class IV Price 9.89 9.74 9.74 9.90 to 10.40
Source: USDA, ERS, Livestock, Dairy & Poultry Outlook
http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/reports/erssor/livestock/ldp-mbb/

MILC payments for October and November milk will be $0.00/cwt. To view the calculations behind the MILC payments and to check the very latest MILC payments check the NE Milk Marketing Administrators website at: http://www.fmmone.com/Northeast_Order_Prices/MILC%20calculator/DMLP.htm


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