Missouri Dairy Business Update

Volume 17, Number 6
June 2017

Milk Prices

According to Bob Cropp's June Dairy Outlook, "Milk prices bottomed out in April. The Class III price was $16.33 in January and fell to $15.22 in April. The May Class III was $15.57 and June could be near $16.40. The Class IV price was $16.19 in January and fell to $14.01 in April. The May Class IV price was $14.49 and June could be near $16.00. For the first five months of the year the Class III price averaged $2.52 higher than last year and the Class IV price averaged $1.86 higher. Milk prices are expected to continue to increase and peak out in October or November.

The level of milk production will be a major factor on how much milk prices strengthen. If the growth in milk production is 2% or less, along with favorable domestic sales and continued improved exports the Class III price could be in the mid $16's by July, assuming some recovery in cheese prices, and the $17's for the remainder of the year peaking in October in the high $17's. The Class IV price could be in the $17's beginning in August and for the remaining months. However, dairy futures are currently less optimistic for the Class III price. Class III futures do not reach $17's until August and remain in the low $17's for the remainder of the year."

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CME Class III and Class IV Milk Futures
6-26-2017 June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

Class III Milk
($ per cwt.)

$16.35 $15.89 $16.77 $16.97 $17.12 $17.10 $16.98 $16.70 $16.65 $16.65

Class IV Milk
($ per cwt.)

$15.98 $16.76 $16.88 $16.95 $17.06 $17.22 $16.56 $16.15 $16.24 $16.40

Historical Missouri milk prices including comparison to the USDA National All Milk Price used for MPP may be found at:http://dairy.missouri.edu/mkt/index.htm