Missouri Dairy Business Update
According to Bob Cropp's November Dairy Outlook, "Looking ahead into 2017 milk prices will depend a lot on the level of milk production. Milk production continues to run well above year ago levels with October production up 2.5 %. Milk cow numbers have been declining falling by 6,000 head since peaking in August. Of the 23 reporting states 11 had fewer cows than a year ago. But, more milk per cow is driving the increase in milk production. Milk per cow was 2.3% higher than a year ago. Of the 23 reporting states just 3 had lower milk cow than a year ago."
"As of now it looks like the Class III price maybe in the high $15’s at the start of 2017, in the low $16’s by the end of first quarter, in the mid-$16’s by second quarter, higher $16’s third quarter and with the $17’s as a possibility fourth quarter. The average for the year could be near $16.50, a good improvement over the expected $14.75 this year. This is more optimistic than USDA and some other forecasters are forecasting. USDA has the Class III averaging from $15.30 to $16.20. But, final milk prices will be subject to any rather small changes in milk production, sales, or exports."
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|CME Class III and Class IV Milk Futures|
Class III Milk
Class IV Milk
Historical Missouri milk prices including comparison to the USDA National All Milk Price used for MPP may be found at:http://dairy.missouri.edu/mkt/index.htm