Missouri Dairy Business Update

Volume 15, Number 3
March, 2015


MPP Update

For those enrolled in the 2015 USDA Margin Protection Program, the first actual MPP payment will be $0.00 for the January/February 2015 period because the Income over Feed Cost Margin for January/February averaged $8.00, ($8.34 for January and $7.66 for February).

The March/April MPP payment will be determined at the end of May, when the USDA Ag Prices Report for April is published. Historical MPP margins are listed below.

The feed cost per cwt. of milk formula is:

1.) Corn $/bushel X 1.0728; plus
2.) Soybean meal $/ton times 0.00735, plus
3.) Alfalfa hay price per ton times 0.0137.

Month
Year
Corn
$/bu

Alfalfa Hay
$/ton

Soybean Meal
$/ton
All Milk $/cwt
Feed Cost $/Cwt
MMP Margin $/cwt

2 month period
MPP
Payment

January
2014
$4.42
$185.00
$479.54
$23.50
$10.80
$12.70
********
February
2014
$4.35
$188.00
$509.25
$24.90
$10.99
$13.91
********
March
2014
$4.51
$191.00
$495.71
$25.20
$11.10
$14.10
********
April
2014
$4.71
$206.00
$514.01
$25.30
$11.65
$13.65
********
May
2014
$4.71
$224.00
$519.38
$24.20
$11.94
$12.26
********
June
2014
$4.49
$222.00
$501.72
$23.20
$11.55
$11.65
********
July
2014
$4.05
$216.00
$450.79
$23.30
$10.62
$12.68
********
August
2014
$3.63
$209.00
$490.32
$24.10
$10.36
$13.74
********
September
2014
$3.48
$197.00
$525.72
$25.70
$10.30
$15.40
XXXXXXXX
October
2014
$3.56
$194.00
$381.50
$24.90
$9.28
$15.62
$0.00
November
2014
$3.58
$184.00
$441.39
$23.00
$9.59
$13.39
XXXXXXXX
December
2014
$3.78
$183.00
$431.73
$20.40
$9.74
$10.66
$0.00
January
2015
$3.81
$174.00
$380.02
$17.60
$9.26
$8.34
XXXXXXXX
February
2015
$3.79
$172.00
$370.38
$16.80
$9.14
$7.66
$0.00
March
2015
 
April
2015
 
May
2015
 
June
2015
 
July
2015
 
August
2015
 
September
2015
 
October
2015
 
November
2015
 
December
2015
 

Expected margins for the next year based upon futures are updated daily at the USDA MPP Tool page:

1.) Go to the bottom of the page and click agree
2.) Hit the "Forecast Margin" bar in the top middle of the page
3.) Click the "Probability Table" button underneath the "Forecast" bar

Expected Margins from USDA MPP Tool, taken at different observation dates

Observation Date
Jan-Feb 2015
Mar-April 2015
May-June 2015
July-August 2015
Sept-Oct 2015

Nov-Dec 2015

12-19-2014
$8.44
$7.42
$7.37
$7.98
$9.12
$9.18
01-29-2014
$8.31
$8.23
$8.43
$9.24
$10.04
$9.94
2-25-2015
$8.56
$8.87
$8.47
$9.63
$10.57
$10.54
3-27-2015
$8.20
$7.72
$7.76
$8.54
$9.80
$10.05