Missouri Dairy Business Update

Volume 15, Number 1
January, 2015


MPP Update

For those enrolled in the 2015 USDA Margin Protection Program, the first actual MPP payments will be not be announced until the end of March when the USDA Ag Prices Report for February is published. Historical MPP margins are listeb below.

The Feed Cost per Cwt of milk formula is:

1.) Corn $/bushel X 1.0728; plus
2.) Soybean meal $/ton times 0.00735, plus
3.) Alfalfa hay price per ton times 0.0137.

Corn
$/bu

Alfalfa Hay
$/ton

Soybean Meal
$/ton
All Milk $/cwt
Feed Cost $/Cwt
MMP Margin $/cwt
January
2014
$4.42
$185.00
$479.54
$23.50
$10.80
$12.70
February
2014
$4.35
$188.00
$509.25
$24.90
$10.99
$13.91
March
2014
$4.51
$191.00
$495.71
$25.20
$11.10
$14.10
April
2014
$4.71
$206.00
$514.01
$25.30
$11.65
$13.65
May
2014
$4.71
$224.00
$519.38
$24.20
$11.94
$12.26
June
2014
$4.49
$222.00
$501.72
$23.20
$11.55
$11.65
July
2014
$4.05
$216.00
$450.79
$23.30
$10.62
$12.68
August
2014
$3.63
$209.00
$490.32
$24.10
$10.36
$13.74
September
2014
$3.48
$197.00
$525.72
$25.70
$10.30
$15.40
October
2014
$3.56
$194.00
$381.50
$24.90
$9.28
$15.62
November
2014
$3.58
$184.00
$441.39
$23.00
$9.59
$13.39
December *
2014
$3.78
$183.00
$431.73
$20.40
$9.74
$10.66
January
2015
February
2015
March
2015
April
2015
May
2015
June
2015
July
2015
August
2015
September
2015
October
2015
November
2015
December
2015

*= preliminary

Expected margins for the next year based upon futures are updated daily at the USDA MPP Tool page:

1.) Go to the bottom of the page and click agree
2.) Hit the "Forecast Margin" bar in the top middle of the page
3.) Click the "Probability Table" button underneath the "Forecast" bar

Expected Margins from USDA MPP Tool, taken at different observation dates

Observation Date Jan-Feb 2015 Mar-April 2015 May-June 2015 July-August 2015 Sept-Oct 2015

Nov-Dec 2015

12-19-2014 $ 8.44 $ 7.42 $ 7.37 $ 7.98 $ 9.12 $ 9.18
01-29-2014 $ 8.31 $ 8.23 $ 8.43 $ 9.24 $ 10.04 $9.94