Missouri Dairy Business Update

Volume 14, Number 9
September 2014

Milk Prices

According to Bob Cropp's August Dairy Outlook, "September dairy product prices and milk prices continue to set new record highs."

"Two major factors for these higher prices have been strong domestic sales and exports. Despite higher butter and cheese prices buyers of butter and cheese have bid up prices to get product to build stocks for the upcoming strong sales period later this fall. January through July exports compared to a year earlier were 37% higher for butter, 31% higher for cheese, 11% higher for nonfat dry milk and 5% higher for dry whey. "

"But these higher prices will not hold. Opinions differ widely as to how quickly and how far prices will fall as we end this year and for 2015. High prices could eventually temper domestic sales of butter and cheese. World prices of butter, cheese, skim milk powder and whole milk powder have fallen substantially and are now well below U.S. prices making U.S. products less competitive on the world market."

"By December we could see butter prices around $1.90 per pound and near $1.70 early into 2015. Cheese could be about $1.95 per pound by December, $1.80 early into 2015 and in the mid‐$1.70s by summer. Dry whey could be below $0.50 early into 2015 and nonfat dry milk around $1.35.These prices would put the Class III price near $19.30 for December, around $18 by January and in the $17s by spring and summer. As butter prices weaken the Class IV price will fall even faster to around $18 by December and in the low $17s early into 2015"

Futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange
9-30-2014 Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June

Class III Milk
($ per cwt.)

24.58 24.06 20.98 19.65 18.15 17.70 17.65 17.54 17.46 17.45

Class IV Milk
($ per cwt.)

22.71 21.82 20.02 17.96 17.61 17.29 17.37 17.35 17.43 17.38
Source: CME

Historical Missouri milk prices may be found at: http://dairy.missouri.edu/mkt/index.htm