Missouri Dairy Business Update

Volume 14, Number 6
June 2014

Milk Prices

According to Bob Cropp's June Dairy Outlook, "Production picked up some in April and May being up 1.2% and 1.4% respectively. Milk production is increasing seasonally only slightly with May production 0.1% higher than April on a daily basis."

"The increase in milk production is the result of more milk cows and more milk per cow. Cow numbers are increasing as dairy producers reduce culling as well as adding cows. Cow slaughter thus far this year is 11% lower than a year ago."

"While dairy exports have been at record levels they are likely to soften some the last half of this year. World milk production has improved and world prices of dairy products have declined considerably since the beginning of the year reducing the price competitiveness of U.S. dairy products on the world market. But, exports could still set a record for the year."

"No sharp decline in milk prices like what has occurred at times in the past is anticipated. Butter and cheese sales are anticipated to remain favorable. Dairy stocks will build this summer and early fall, but not to levels that will put a lot of downward pressure on prices. Dairy exports could soften some for the last half of the year. The growth in milk production will pick up. All of these factors indicate a slow decline in milk prices."

Futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange

June 2014

July 2014 Aug 2014 Sept 2014 Oct 2014 Nov 2014 Dec 2014 2015 Average 1st Q 2016

Class III Milk
($ per cwt.)

21.30 21.67 21.71 21.67 21.40 20.81 20.33 18.44 16.35

Class IV Milk
($ per cwt.)

22.91 23.35 23.14 22.60 21.78 21.37 20.68 17.72 16.98
Source: CME

Historical Missouri milk prices may be found at: http://agebb.missouri.edu/dairy/mkt/index.htm

Global Dairy Trade Prices: https://www.globaldairytrade.info/en/product-results/