Missouri Dairy Business Update

Volume 14, Number 2
February 2014

Milk Prices

According to Bob Cropp's February Dairy Outlook, "We can expect milk production to continue to improve as we move through the year. Weather can impact milk per cow and crop conditions. The severe drought in California will likely to substantially increase the price of alfalfa hay later this year and could impact the level of milk production recovery in the state. As of now USDA is projecting 0.4% increase in the average number of milk cows for the year and 1.9% more milk per cow resulting in an increase of 2.2% in total milk production.

No doubt with favorable weather and good crops this summer milk production will continue to improve. Milk prices will average higher for the first half of the year than for the last half. But, as of now it appears that milk prices will average higher for the year than 2013 setting a new record high. Dairy futures are quite optimistic with Class III above $20 through April, above $19 March through June and not falling below $18 until December. But, if USDA is correct on their forecast for milk production Class III prices could well end up lower than this for the last half of the year, but staying above $17 until the end of the year is quite likely. Even if prices due end up at this lower level, with lower feed costs 2014 is shaping up to be good year for dairy producers and they deserve it."

 

Futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange
2-27-2014 Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov

Class III Milk
($ per cwt.)

$23.19 $22.23 $20.97 $20.21 $20.07 $19.64 $19.35 $19.20 $18.95 $18.59

Class IV Milk
($ per cwt.)

$23.44 $23.11 $22.94 $22.27 $21.77 $21.61 $21.14 $20.90 $20.27 $19.90
Source: CME

Historical Missouri milk prices may be found at: http://agebb.missouri.edu/dairy/mkt/index.htm