Missouri Dairy Business Update

Volume 13, Number 7
July 2013

Milk Prices

According to the Bob Cropp's July Dairy Outlook, "The high for the Class III price thus far this year was in May at $18.52. The June Class III price was $18.02.
Weaker cheese prices for the first half of the month will result in a further decline in the July Class III price."

"Total cheese stocks were a record for any given month. Cheese exports being
supported by the CWT program were 5% higher than a year ago through May. Butter prices have also been lower due to a high level of stocks, up 24% from a year ago."

"If increases in milk production stay below 2% for the reminder of the year, a Class III price reaching $19 by September or October is still possible. However, current Class III futures are not quite that optimistic. Class III futures are in the $18’s August through November with October at $18.95. With anticipation of a continuation of increased levels of nonfat dry milk/skim milk powder exports Class IV nonfat dry milk futures are in the $19’s through November with a peak in September at $20. Looking farther into 2014, if crop harvests turn out good and feed prices are lower this winter along with some recovery in world milk production we can anticipate milk prices being a little lower than this year. But, as of now the range of possible milk prices is fairly wide"


Futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange
7-26-2013 July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr

Class III Milk
($ per cwt.)

17.35 17.88 18.38 18.40 17.94 17.33 16.74 16.64 16.78 16.78

Class IV Milk
($ per cwt.)

18.93 19.41 19.85 19.60 19.02 18.40 17.73 17.45 17.38 16.39
Source: CME
Current USDA Milk Price Forecasts
July 2013 3rd Q 2013

4th Q 2013

1st Q 2013 2014
Class III Price 18.10-18.70 17.95-18.85 16.40-17.40 17.00-18.00
Class IV Price 18.55-19.25 18.20-19.20 16.95-18.05 17.80-18.90
Source: USDA, ERS, Livestock, Dairy & Poultry Outlook

Historical Missouri milk prices may be found at: http://agebb.missouri.edu/dairy/mkt/index.htm