Missouri Dairy Business Update

Volume 13, Number 6
June 2013

Milk Prices

According to the latest USDA dairy outlook, "The June milk production forecast for 2013 is unchanged from May at 201.8 billion pounds. The May Milk Production report placed production for the first 4 months of 2013 slightly ahead of the same period last year after adjusting for the extra milking day in 2012. After accounting for the relatively weak milk-feed price ratio, there was no basis for increasing forecast production from the May estimate. Milk production in 2014 was lowered in June from May’s forecast to 204.5 billion pounds. Weak milk-feed price ratios will likely slow production growth through much of 2014."

"The Class IV price was lowered for both this year and next as lower butter prices
more than offset NDM price strength. The Class IV price is forecast at $18.15 –
$18.65 per cwt for this year and $17.75 - $18.85 per cwt for 2014. The Class III
milk price forecast was lowered to $17.80 - $18.20 per cwt but is unchanged from
May at $17.00 - $18.00 per cwt for 2014. The all milk price was increased from
May for both 2013 and 2014 to $19.60 - $20.00 and $18.95 - $19.95 per
cwt, respectively."

Futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange
6-18-2013 June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

Class III Milk
($ per cwt.)

18.02 17.98 18.46 18.83 18.82 18.54 18.13 17.62 17.27 17.18

Class IV Milk
($ per cwt.)

19.03 19.30 19.54 19.54 19.28 19.11 18.59 18.20 17.85 17.50
Source: CME
Current USDA Milk Price Forecasts
6-18-2013 3rd Q 2013

4th Q 2013

1st Q 2013 2014
Class III Price 18.10-18.70 17.95-18.85 16.40-17.40 17.00-18.00
Class IV Price 18.55-19.25 18.20-19.20 16.95-18.05 17.80-18.90
Source: USDA, ERS, Livestock, Dairy & Poultry Outlook

Historical Missouri milk prices may be found at: http://agebb.missouri.edu/dairy/mkt/index.htm