Missouri Dairy Business Update

Volume 13, Number 4
April 2013

Milk Prices

According to the USDA Dairy Outlook, "The lower price for concentrate feeds along with a slightly higher expected all milk price will improve producer margins somewhat. The improvement is not large enough to boost herd size. Consequently, herd size is projected at 9,195 thousand for 2013, unchanged from March’s forecast and below 2012’s average herd size. Output per cow for the year was lowered in April to 21,945 pounds, based on lower February milk per cow data. Based on forecast herd size and output per cow, production is projected at 201.8 billion pounds for 2013."

"The price differential between U.S. and world nonfat dry milk (NDM) prices will likely strengthen exports in the second half of the year. Both fats- and skim-solids export forecasts represent increases above 2012 totals."

Futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange
4-22-2013 Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan

Class III Milk
($ per cwt.)

17.60 18.92 19.51 19.54 19.48 19.35 19.00 18.66 18.27 17.89

Class IV Milk
($ per cwt.)

18.30 18.98 20.00 20.25 20.25 20.28 19.97 19.69 19.36 18.60
Source: CME
Current USDA Milk Price Forecasts
4-16-2013 2nd Q 2013

3rd Q 2013

4th Q 2013 2013
Class III Price 17.60 - 18.00 18.30 - 19.00 18.10 - 19.10 17.85 - 18.35
Class IV Price 18.05 - 18.55 18.50 - 19.30 18.15 - 19.30 18.10 - 18.70
Source: USDA, ERS, Livestock, Dairy & Poultry Outlook

Historical Missouri milk prices may be found at: http://agebb.missouri.edu/dairy/mkt/index.htm