Missouri Dairy Business Update
According to Bob Cropp's Dairy Outlook, "Despite widespread drought last year and high feed prices milk production continues to run above year ago levels, but up just slightly. USDA’s release of February’s milk production when adjusted for leap year showed production compared to a year earlier up just 0.1% for the 23 reporting states and estimated to be even for the U.S."
"With milk production running above a year ago dairy product production is also higher. January production compared to a year ago shows butter up 2.6%, cheddar cheese up 2.9% and total cheese up 2.4%. Exports have been lighter and domestic buyers have not been aggressive resulting in increased stocks. January 31st stocks compared to a year ago shows butter up 21.3% (increased 35% since the end of December), American cheese up just 0.2% and total cheese up 1.2%. Stocks of nonfat dry milk were up 57.2% and dry whey stocks up 17.5%."
"I still feel the probability of Class III reaching and holding at $19 plus by summer and fall as current futures show is quite high. But, as mentioned before the crop conditions and resulting feed prices this summer and fall will be critical to milk production and final milk prices the last half of the year."
|Futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange|
Class III Milk
Class IV Milk
|Current USDA Milk Price Forecasts|
|2-14-13||1st Q 2013||2nd Q 2013||
3rd Q 2013
|4th Q 2013|
|Class III Price||17.25 - 17.45||17.50 - 18.00||17.90 - 18.70||17.60 - 18.60|
|Class IV Price||17.55 - 17.85||17.35 - 17.95||17.50 - 18.40||17.00 - 18.10|
|Source: USDA, ERS, Livestock, Dairy & Poultry Outlook|
Historical Missouri milk prices may be found at: http://agebb.missouri.edu/dairy/mkt/index.htm