January - March 2013
1Q13 Market Conditions
By Jason Jensen
The New Year brings new hope for improving markets. Markets have been stable to slightly improving throughout the last quarter.
Logging conditions remained good for the first half of the quarter. The last half of the quarter was more typical of winter logging conditions in Missouri. Many mills are short on logs and lumber for buyers. There continues to be much competition for standing timber especially in the SE Missouri Ozarks where the railroad tie market drives the timber markets. Tie markets remain stable as are markets for pallet and flooring lumber grades. Pine markets may be showing slight improvement. A few pine ties are being cut along with posts, poles, and shavings. A few mills are also sawing cants that are being sold and re-sawn into dimensional lumber.
Stave quality white oak and walnut provide the bright spot in the timber economy especially in the northern portion of the state. Good walnut prices can be a double edged sword. I've heard from foresters, loggers, and sawmills that they have seen an increasing trend towards harvesting small diameter walnut. A market for a certain product doesn't necessarily mean it is the best time to harvest the product from an economic perspective. Walnut can increase in value expotentially as it continues to increase in diameter growth. Consult a forester for local market conditions and for reliable information on when to harvest your trees.
The housing market and general economy continues to show signs of improvement but at a very slow pace. To see a dramatic improvement in housing, we need jobs. A recent article in US News and World report indicated that 42% of US households with the head of the household under age 65, are receiving some form of government aid. This is pretty alarming. Long term improvements to the economy and housing markets are hard to conceive until that situation improves.