January - March, 2009
Downturn Hits Lumber
Downturn Hits Lumber
U.S. lumber demand is expected to fall this year to the lowest point in history before starting a slow recovery next year, according to an industry forecast released by the Western Wood Products Association. They predict lumber demand will slide to just 28.9 billion board feet — a 30 percent decline from 2008 totals and a 55 percent decline from 2005, when the industry reached an all-time high of 64.3 billion board feet.
That decline — the steepest in history — is the result of a continued weak home construction market, which typically accounts for more than 45 percent of the lumber used each year. An estimated 432,000 homes will be started in 2009, less than half of the total from last year and just one-fifth of 2005 totals.
The home construction market is expected to turn around in 2010, with an initial forecast indicating home starts will jump to 553,000, increasing lumber consumption to 30 billion board feet. Housing starts are not expected to exceed 1 million units until 2012.
U.S. lumber production is expected to fall to 21.8 billion board feet this year — down 25 percent — increasing slightly in 2010 to 22.4 billion board feet.
Source: Puget Sound Business Journal