USDA Supply/Demand Report
June 12, 2009
U.S. Feed Grain and Corn Supply and Use 1/
===============================================================================
: : : 2009/10 Projections
Item : 2007/08 : 2008/09 :==============================
: : Est. : May June
===============================================================================
FEED GRAINS :
Area : Million acres
Planted : 109.0 101.7 99.3 * 99.3 *
Harvested : 98.3 91.1 88.6 * 88.6 *
Yield per harvested : Metric tons
acre : 3.56 3.58 3.65 3.60
: Million metric tons
Beginning stocks : 36.2 45.1 45.3 45.3
Production : 349.7 325.9 323.0 319.0
Imports : 3.3 3.0 2.8 2.8
Supply, total : 389.2 374.0 371.1 367.2
Feed and residual : 157.8 145.0 141.1 138.5
Food, seed & industrial : 116.5 135.6 144.5 144.5
Domestic, total : 274.3 280.6 285.6 283.0
Exports : 69.9 48.1 52.3 52.3
Use, total : 344.1 328.6 337.9 335.3
Ending stocks, total : 45.1 45.3 33.2 31.8
CCC inventory : 0.0 0.0
Free stocks : 45.1 45.3
Outstanding loans : 2.7 3.9
:
CORN :
Area : Million acres
Planted : 93.5 86.0 85.0 * 85.0 *
Harvested : 86.5 78.6 77.8 * 77.8 *
Yield per harvested : Bushels
acre : 150.7 153.9 155.4 * 153.4 *
: Million bushels
Beginning stocks : 1,304 1,624 1,600 1,600
Production : 13,038 12,101 12,090 11,935
Imports : 20 15 15 15
Supply, total : 14,362 13,740 13,705 13,550
Feed and residual : 5,938 5,350 5,250 5,150
Food, seed & industrial : 4,363 5,040 5,410 5,410
Ethanol for fuel 2/ : 3,026 3,750 4,100 4,100
Domestic, total : 10,302 10,390 10,660 10,560
Exports : 2,436 1,750 1,900 1,900
Use, total : 12,737 12,140 12,560 12,460
Ending stocks, total : 1,624 1,600 1,145 1,090
CCC inventory : 0 0
Free stocks : 1,624 1,600
Outstanding loans : 106 150
Avg. farm price ($/bu) 3/ : 4.20 4.10- 4.30 3.70- 4.50 3.90- 4.70
===============================================================================
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning
September 1 for corn and sorghum; June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ For a further
breakout of food, seed, & industrial corn use including ethanol, see the ERS
Feed Outlook table 5 or Feed Grains Database at "www.ers.usda.gov/db/feedgrains."
3/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. *Planted acres
reported in the March 31, 2009, "Prospective Plantings." For corn, harvested
acres projected based on historical abandonment and derived demand for silage.
Projected corn yield based on the simple linear trend of the national average
yield for 1990-2008 adjusted for 2009 planting progress.
U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (Domestic Measure) 1/
===============================================================================
: : : 2009/10 Projections
Item : 2007/08 : 2008/09 :===============================
: : Est. : May June
===============================================================================
SOYBEANS: : Million acres
Area :
Planted : 64.7 75.7 76.0 * 76.0 *
Harvested : 64.1 74.6 75.0 * 75.0 *
:
: Bushels
Yield per harvested :
acre : 41.7 39.6 42.6 * 42.6 *
:
: Million bushels
:
Beginning stocks : 574 205 130 110
Production : 2,677 2,959 3,195 3,195
Imports : 10 12 12 12
Supply, total : 3,261 3,176 3,337 3,317
Crushings : 1,801 1,650 1,675 1,675
Exports : 1,161 1,250 1,260 1,260
Seed : 93 94 92 92
Residual : 0 73 79 79
Use, total : 3,056 3,066 3,107 3,107
Ending stocks : 205 110 230 210
Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 10.10 10.00 8.45-10.45 9.00 -11.00
:
:
: Million pounds
SOYBEAN OIL: :
Beginning stocks : 3,085 2,483 2,703 3,013
Production : 20,568 18,730 3/ 19,045 19,010
Imports : 65 100 85 75
Supply, total : 23,718 21,313 21,833 22,098
Domestic : 18,327 16,200 16,700 16,500
For methyl ester : 2,981 1,750 2,200 2,200
Exports : 2,908 2,100 2,750 2,950
Use, total : 21,235 18,300 19,450 19,450
Ending stocks : 2,483 3,013 2,383 2,648
Average price (c/lb) 2/ : 52.03 33.50 32.50- 33.00-
: 36.50 37.00
:
: Thousand short tons
SOYBEAN MEAL: :
Beginning stocks : 346 294 300 300
Production : 42,242 39,166 3/ 39,835 39,835
Imports : 141 140 165 165
Supply, total : 42,729 39,600 40,300 40,300
Domestic : 33,155 30,500 30,800 30,800
Exports : 9,280 8,800 9,200 9,200
Use, total : 42,435 39,300 40,000 40,000
Ending stocks : 294 300 300 300
Average price ($/s.t.) 2/ : 335.94 320.00 260.00- 275.00-
: 320.00 335.00
===============================================================================
Note: Reliability calculations at end of report.
1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil
and meal. 2/ Prices: soybeans, marketing year weighted average price received
by farmers; for oil, simple average of crude soybean oil, Decatur; for meal,
simple average of 48 percent, Decatur. 3/ Based on October year crush estimate
of 1,655 million bushels. *Planted acres are reported in the March 31
Prospective Plantings report. Harvested acres based on 5-year average planted
to harvested ratios by state. Projected yield based on 1989-2007 regional
trend analysis.
U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 1/
===============================================================================
: : : 2009/10 Projections
Item : 2007/08 : 2008/09 :==============================
: : Est. : May June
===============================================================================
Area : Million acres
Planted : 60.5 63.1 58.6 * 58.6 *
Harvested : 51.0 55.7 48.9 * 48.9 *
Yield per harvested : Bushels
acre : 40.2 44.9 41.4 * 41.2 *
: Million bushels
Beginning stocks : 456 306 669 669
Production : 2,051 2,500 2,026 2,016
Imports : 113 125 115 115
Supply, total : 2,620 2,930 2,810 2,800
Food : 947 922 955 955
Seed : 88 79 78 78
Feed and residual : 15 250 240 220
Domestic, total : 1,050 1,251 1,273 1,253
Exports : 1,264 1,010 900 900
Use, total : 2,314 2,261 2,173 2,153
Ending stocks : 306 669 637 647
CCC inventory : 0 0
Free stocks : 306 669
Outstanding loans : 1 27
Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 6.48 6.85 4.70- 5.70 4.90- 5.90
===============================================================================
U.S. Wheat by Class: Supply and Use
===============================================================================
Year beginning : Hard : Hard : Soft : : :
June 1 : Winter : Spring : Red : White : Durum : Total
===============================================================================
2008/09 (estimated) : Million bushels
Beginning stocks : 138 68 55 37 8 306
Production : 1,035 512 614 254 85 2,500
Supply, total 3/ : 1,174 627 700 298 132 2,930
Domestic use : 462 252 346 106 85 1,251
Exports : 445 215 190 135 25 1,010
Use, total : 907 467 536 241 110 2,261
Ending stocks Jun : 267 159 164 57 22 669
May : 267 159 164 52 27 669
===============================================================================
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning June 1.
2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 3/ Includes
imports. * For May, planted acres reported in March 31, 2009, "Prospective
Plantings." Harvested acres and yield for other spring wheat and durum are
projected using 10-year harvested-to-planted ratios by state and projected
yield derived from 1985-2008 trend yields by state (except Idaho durum)
adjusted for 2009 Northern Plains planting progress. For June, winter wheat
harvested acres and yield reported in the June 10, 2009, "Crop Production."
U.S. Sorghum, Barley and Oats Supply and Use 1/
===============================================================================
: : : 2009/10 Projections
Item : 2007/08 : 2008/09 :==============================
: : Est. : May June
===============================================================================
: Million bushels
SORGHUM :
Area planted (mil. acres) : 7.7 8.3 7.0 * 7.0 *
Area harv. (mil. acres) : 6.8 7.3 6.0 * 6.0 *
Yield (bushels/acre) : 73.2 65.0 63.9 * 63.9 *
Beginning stocks : 32 53 65 65
Production : 497 472 380 380
Imports : 0 0 0 0
Supply, total : 530 525 445 445
Feed and residual : 164 220 160 160
Food, seed & industrial : 35 110 90 90
Total domestic : 199 330 250 250
Exports : 278 130 140 140
Use, total : 477 460 390 390
Ending stocks, total : 53 65 55 55
Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 4.08 3.20- 3.40 3.15- 3.85 3.30- 4.00
:
BARLEY :
Area planted (mil. acres) : 4.0 4.2 4.0 * 4.0 *
Area harv. (mil. acres) : 3.5 3.8 3.4 * 3.4 *
Yield (bushels/acre) : 60.0 63.6 65.4 * 65.4 *
Beginning stocks : 69 68 89 90
Production : 210 239 225 225
Imports : 32 30 25 25
Supply, total : 311 338 339 340
Feed and residual : 32 65 70 70
Food, seed & industrial : 169 170 170 170
Total domestic : 201 235 240 240
Exports : 41 13 20 20
Use, total : 242 248 260 260
Ending stocks, total : 68 90 79 80
Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 4.02 5.20 3.75- 4.45 3.85- 4.55
:
OATS :
Area planted (mil. acres) : 3.8 3.2 3.4 * 3.4 *
Area harv. (mil. acres) : 1.5 1.4 1.4 * 1.4 *
Yield (bushels/acre) : 60.1 63.5 63.8 * 63.8 *
Beginning stocks : 51 67 72 72
Production : 90 89 90 90
Imports : 123 115 110 110
Supply, total : 264 270 272 272
Feed and residual : 120 120 125 125
Food, seed & industrial : 74 75 75 75
Total domestic : 195 195 200 200
Exports : 3 3 3 3
Use, total : 198 198 203 203
Ending stocks, total : 67 72 69 69
Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.63 3.15 2.20- 3.00 2.30- 3.10
===============================================================================
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning
September 1 for sorghum, June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price
received by farmers. * Planted acres reported in the March 31,
2009, "Prospective Plantings." Harvested area - For sorghum, barley, and oats harvested
acres are based on the 5-year average harvested-to-planted ratio, 2004-2008. Yield - For
sorghum the projected yield is derived from the 1999-2008
average yield, excluding 2002, 2003, and 2007, adjusted for rounding in
production. For barley and oats the projected yield is derived from the
1960-2008 trend yield adjusted for rounding in production.
U.S. Rice Supply and Use 1/
(Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice)
===============================================================================
: : : 2009/10 Projections
Item : 2007/08 : 2008/09 :==============================
: : Est. : May June
===============================================================================
TOTAL :
Area : Million acres
Planted : 2.76 3.00 3.18 * 3.18 *
Harvested : 2.75 2.98 3.16 * 3.16 *
Yield per harvested : Pounds
acre : 7,219 6,846 7,082 * 6,955 *
:
: Million hundredweight
Beginning stocks 2/ : 39.3 29.4 23.2 23.2
Production : 198.4 203.7 224.0 220.0
Imports : 23.9 19.0 21.0 22.0
Supply, total : 261.6 252.2 268.2 265.2
Domestic & residual 3/ : 126.8 135.0 132.0 132.0
Exports, total 4/ : 105.4 94.0 97.0 97.0
Rough : 37.7 33.0 37.0 35.0
Milled (rough equiv.) : 67.7 61.0 60.0 62.0
Use, total : 232.2 229.0 229.0 229.0
Ending stocks : 29.4 23.2 39.2 36.2
Avg. milling yield (%) 5/ : 70.5 70.5 70.5 70.5
Avg. farm price ($/cwt) 6/ : 12.8015.75-16.25 10.50-11.50 10.50-11.50
:
LONG GRAIN :
Harvested acres (mil.) : 2.05 2.35
Yield (pounds/acre) : 6,980 6,522
Beginning stocks : 28.5 19.0 13.3 13.3
Production : 143.2 153.3 173.0 169.0
Supply, total 7/ : 189.4 188.3 203.3 200.3
Domestic & Residual 3/ : 91.0 106.0 100.0 100.0
Exports 8/ : 79.4 69.0 74.0 74.0
Use, total : 170.4 175.0 174.0 174.0
Ending stocks : 19.0 13.3 29.3 26.3
Avg. farm price ($/cwt) 6/ : 12.4014.55-15.05 9.50-10.50 9.50-10.50
:
MEDIUM & SHORT GRAIN :
Harvested acres (mil.) : 0.70 0.63
Yield (pounds/acre) : 7,924 8,063
Beginning stocks : 10.0 9.1 8.6 8.6
Production : 55.2 50.5 51.0 51.0
Supply, total 7/ : 70.8 62.6 63.6 63.6
Domestic & Residual 3/ : 35.7 29.0 32.0 32.0
Exports 8/ : 26.0 25.0 23.0 23.0
Use, total : 61.8 54.0 55.0 55.0
Ending stocks : 9.1 8.6 8.6 8.6
Avg. farm price ($/cwt) 6/ : 14.6021.10-21.60 15.50-16.50 15.50-16.50
===============================================================================
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1.
2/ Includes the following quantities of broken kernel rice (type undetermined) not
included in estimates of beginning stocks by type (in mil. cwt): 2007/08-0.8;
2008/09-1.3; 2009/10-1.3. 3/ Residual includes unreported use, processing losses,
and estimating errors. Use by type may not add to total rice use because of the
difference in brokens between beginning and ending stocks. 4/ Includes rough rice
and milled rice exports. Milled rice exports are converted to an equivalent rough
basis. 5/ Expressed as a percent, i.e., the total quantity of whole kernel and
broken rice produced divided by the quantity of rough rice milled. 6/ Marketing-year
weighted average price received by farmers. 7/ Includes imports. 8/ Exports by type
of rice are estimated. * Planted acres reported in March 31, 2009, "Prospective
Plantings." Harvested acres are estimated using the average harvested-to-planted
ratios by State and rice class, 2006-2008. For May and June: Projected yield is
derived from the trend yields by rice class for the period, 1990-2008. The combined
medium- and short-grain yield trend is adjusted slightly lower because of a larger
share of lower yielding medium grain rice in the South. For June: The yield is
adjusted for late planting and slow development of the crop in the Delta caused
by heavy rains in May.
U. S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/
===============================================================================
: : : 2009/10 Projections
Item : 2007/08 : 2008/09 :===============================
: : Est. : May June
===============================================================================
: Million acres
Area :
Planted : 10.83 9.47 8.81 * 8.81 *
Harvested : 10.49 7.57 7.90 * 7.90 *
:
: Pounds
Yield per harvested :
acre : 879 813 805 * 805 *
:
: Million 480 pound bales
:
Beginning stocks 2/ : 9.48 10.04 6.80 6.60
Production : 19.21 12.82 13.25 13.25
Imports : 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
Supply, total : 28.70 22.86 20.06 19.86
Domestic use : 4.59 3.55 3.50 3.50
Exports : 13.65 12.70 11.00 10.80
Use, total : 18.24 16.25 14.50 14.30
Unaccounted 3/ : 0.41 0.01 -0.04 -0.04
Ending stocks : 10.04 6.60 5.60 5.60
:
Avg. farm price 4/ : 59.3 49.0 48.0-60.0 48.0-60.0
===============================================================================
Note: Reliability calculations at end of report.
1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may
not add due to rounding. 2/ Based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ Reflects the
difference between the previous season's supply less total use and ending
stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 4/ Upland cotton marketing year
weighted average price received by farmers in cents per pound. *Planted area
reported in March 31 "Prospective Plantings." Projected harvested area is based
on the 2004-2008 average abandonment, weighted by region. Projected yield per
harvested acre is based on the 2004-2008 average yield, weighted by region.
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