USDA Supply/Demand Report
May 9th, 2008
U.S. Feed Grain and Corn Supply and Use 1/
===============================================================================
: : : 2008/09 Projections
Item : 2006/07 : 2007/08 :==============================
: : Est. : May
===============================================================================
FEED GRAINS :
Area : Million acres
Planted : 92.5 109.1 101.0 *
Harvested : 80.1 98.4 90.1 *
Yield per harvested : Metric tons
acre : 3.50 3.57 3.61
: Million metric tons
Beginning stocks : 54.7 36.2 38.4
Production : 279.9 350.9 325.0
Imports : 2.4 2.9 2.6
Supply, total : 337.1 389.9 365.9
Feed and residual : 148.3 164.0 142.8
Food, seed & industrial : 94.2 115.9 141.9
Domestic, total : 242.5 279.9 284.7
Exports : 58.4 71.6 58.0
Use, total : 300.9 351.5 342.7
Ending stocks, total : 36.2 38.4 23.2
CCC inventory : 0.0 0.0
Free stocks : 36.2 38.4
Outstanding loans : 3.0 4.1
:
CORN :
Area : Million acres
Planted : 78.3 93.6 86.0 *
Harvested : 70.6 86.5 78.8 *
Yield per harvested : Bushels
acre : 149.1 151.1 153.9 *
: Million bushels
Beginning stocks : 1,967 1,304 1,383
Production : 10,535 13,074 12,125
Imports : 12 15 15
Supply, total : 12,514 14,393 13,523
Feed and residual : 5,598 6,150 5,300
Food, seed & industrial : 3,488 4,360 5,360
Ethanol for fuel 2/ : 2,117 3,000 4,000
Domestic, total : 9,086 10,510 10,660
Exports : 2,125 2,500 2,100
Use, total : 11,210 13,010 12,760
Ending stocks, total : 1,304 1,383 763
CCC inventory : 0 0
Free stocks : 1,304 1,383
Outstanding loans : 116 160
Avg. farm price ($/bu) 3/ : 3.04 4.10- 4.40 5.00- 6.00
===============================================================================
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning
September 1 for corn and sorghum; June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ For a further
breakout of food, seed, & industrial corn use including ethanol, see the ERS
Feed Outlook table 5 or Feed Grains Database at
"www.ers.usda.gov/db/feedgrains". 3/ Marketing-year weighted average price
received by farmers. * Planted acres reported in the March 31, 2008,
"Prospective Plantings." For corn, harvested acres projected based on
historical abandonment and derived demand for silage. Projected corn yield
based on the simple linear trend of the national average yield for 1990-2007
adjusted for 2008 planting progress.
U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (Domestic Measure) 1/
===============================================================================
: : : 2008/09 Projections
Item : 2006/07 : 2007/08 :===============================
: : Est. : May
===============================================================================
SOYBEANS: : Million acres
Area :
Planted : 75.5 63.6 74.8 *
Harvested : 74.6 62.8 73.8 *
:
: Bushels
Yield per harvested :
acre : 42.7 41.2 42.1 *
:
: Million bushels
:
Beginning stocks : 449 574 145
Production : 3,188 2,585 3,105
Imports : 9 10 8
Supply, total : 3,647 3,169 3,258
Crushings : 1,806 1,840 1,850
Exports : 1,118 1,090 1,050
Seed : 78 92 90
Residual : 70 2 3/ 82
Use, total : 3,073 3,024 3,073
Ending stocks : 574 145 185
Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 6.43 10.00 10.50 -12.00
:
:
: Million pounds
SOYBEAN OIL: :
Beginning stocks : 3,010 2,904 2,792
Production : 20,487 21,250 21,090
Imports : 37 37 47
Supply, total : 23,535 24,192 23,929
Domestic : 18,743 18,550 18,600
For methyl ester : 2,796 2,950 3,200
Exports : 1,888 2,850 2,650
Use, total : 20,630 21,400 21,250
Ending stocks : 2,904 2,792 2,679
Average price (c/lb) 2/ : 31.02 52.00 50.00-
: 54.00
:
: Thousand short tons
SOYBEAN MEAL: :
Beginning stocks : 314 351 300
Production : 43,027 43,834 43,985
Imports : 156 165 165
Supply, total : 43,497 44,350 44,450
Domestic : 34,360 35,100 35,350
Exports : 8,786 8,950 8,800
Use, total : 43,146 44,050 44,150
Ending stocks : 351 300 300
Average price ($/s.t.) 2/ : 205.44 315.00 280.00-
: 340.00
===============================================================================
Note: Reliability calculations at end of report.
1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil
and meal. 2/ Prices: soybeans, marketing year weighted average price received
by farmers; for oil, simple average of crude soybean oil, Decatur; for meal,
simple average of 48 percent, Decatur. 3/ Supply estimates and reported use
through March 1, coupled with USDA's March 1 stocks estimate, indicate a
below-average residual. *Planted acres are reported in the March 31
Prospective Plantings report. Harvested acres based on 5-year average planted
to harvested ratios by state. Projected yield based on 1989-2007 regional
trend analysis.
U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 1/
===============================================================================
: : : 2008/09 Projections
Item : 2006/07 : 2007/08 :==============================
: : Est. : May
===============================================================================
Area : Million acres
Planted : 57.3 60.4 63.8 *
Harvested : 46.8 51.0 56.3 *
Yield per harvested : Bushels
acre : 38.7 40.5 42.5 *
: Million bushels
Beginning stocks : 571 456 239
Production : 1,812 2,067 2,392
Imports : 122 95 100
Supply, total : 2,505 2,618 2,732
Food : 938 950 960
Seed : 81 88 84
Feed and residual : 121 60 230
Domestic, total : 1,140 1,098 1,274
Exports : 909 1,280 975
Use, total : 2,049 2,378 2,249
Ending stocks : 456 239 483
CCC inventory : 41 24
Free stocks : 415 215
Outstanding loans : 14 1
Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 4.26 6.55 6.60- 8.10
===============================================================================
U.S. Wheat by Class: Supply and Use
===============================================================================
Year beginning : Hard : Hard : Soft : : :
June 1 : Winter : Spring : Red : White : Durum :Total
===============================================================================
2007/08 (estimated) : Million bushels
Beginning stocks : 165 117 109 44 22 456
Production : 962 449 358 227 72 2,067
Supply, total 3/ : 1,127 608 477 278 128 2,618
Domestic use : 491 234 211 86 76 1,098
Exports : 540 310 225 165 40 1,280
Use, total : 1,031 544 436 251 116 2,378
Ending stocks May : 96 64 41 26 12 239
Apr : 101 58 42 27 14 242
===============================================================================
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning June 1.
2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 3/ Includes
imports. * Planted acres reported in the March 31, 2008, "Prospective
Plantings." Harvested acres and yield for other spring wheat and durum are
projected using 10-year harvested-to-planted ratios by state and projected
yield derived from 1985-2007 trend yields by state (except Idaho durum).
Winter wheat harvested acreage and yield reported in the May 9, 2008, "Crop
Production."
U.S. Sorghum, Barley and Oats Supply and Use 1/
===============================================================================
: : : 2008/09 Projections
Item : 2006/07 : 2007/08 :==============================
: : Est. : May
===============================================================================
: Million bushels
SORGHUM :
Area planted (mil. acres) : 6.5 7.7 7.4 *
Area harv. (mil. acres) : 4.9 6.8 6.3 *
Yield (bushels/acre) : 56.2 74.2 65.9 *
Beginning stocks : 66 32 52
Production : 278 505 415
Imports : 0 0 0
Supply, total : 343 537 467
Feed and residual : 109 165 190
Food, seed & industrial : 45 35 60
Total domestic : 154 200 250
Exports : 157 285 160
Use, total : 311 485 410
Ending stocks, total : 32 52 57
Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 3.29 3.95- 4.25 4.70- 5.70
:
BARLEY :
Area planted (mil. acres) : 3.5 4.0 4.1 *
Area harv. (mil. acres) : 3.0 3.5 3.6 *
Yield (bushels/acre) : 61.1 60.4 65.5 *
Beginning stocks : 108 69 59
Production : 180 212 235
Imports : 12 23 20
Supply, total : 300 304 314
Feed and residual : 56 60 65
Food, seed & industrial : 156 145 145
Total domestic : 211 205 210
Exports : 20 40 25
Use, total : 231 245 235
Ending stocks, total : 69 59 79
Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 2.85 4.00 5.70- 6.70
:
OATS :
Area planted (mil. acres) : 4.2 3.8 3.4 *
Area harv. (mil. acres) : 1.6 1.5 1.4 *
Yield (bushels/acre) : 59.8 60.9 64.0 *
Beginning stocks : 53 51 45
Production : 94 92 90
Imports : 106 115 105
Supply, total : 252 257 240
Feed and residual : 125 135 115
Food, seed & industrial : 74 75 75
Total domestic : 199 210 190
Exports : 3 3 3
Use, total : 202 212 193
Ending stocks, total : 51 45 47
Avg. farm price ($/bu) 2/ : 1.87 2.60 3.50- 4.50
===============================================================================
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning
September 1 for sorghum; June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year
weighted average price received by farmers. * Planted acres reported in the
March 31, 2008, "Prospective Plantings." Harvested area - For sorghum, barley,
and oats harvested acres is the 4-year average harvested-to-planted ratio,
2004-2007. Yield - For sorghum the projected yield is derived from the 10-year
average yield (1998-2007, excluding 2002 and 2003) adjusted for rounding in
production. For barley and oats the projected yield is derived from the
1960-2007 trend yield adjusted for rounding in production.
U.S. Rice Supply and Use 1/
(Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice)
===============================================================================
: : : 2008/09 Projections
Item : 2006/07 : 2007/08 :==============================
: : Est. : May
===============================================================================
TOTAL :
Area : Million acres
Planted : 2.84 2.76 2.77 *
Harvested : 2.82 2.75 2.76 *
Yield per harvested : Pounds
acre : 6,868 7,185 7,145 *
:
: Million hundredweight
:
Beginning stocks 2/ : 43.0 39.3 21.6
Production : 193.7 197.5 197.0
Imports : 20.6 21.5 22.5
Supply, total : 257.3 258.3 241.1
Domestic & residual 3/ : 126.6 124.7 126.0
Exports, total 4/ : 91.4 112.0 98.0
Rough : 32.1 36.5 34.0
Milled (rough equiv.) : 59.3 75.5 64.0
Use, total : 218.0 236.7 224.0
Ending stocks : 39.3 21.6 17.1
Avg. milling yield (%) 5/ : 71.0 70.5 70.5
Avg. farm price ($/cwt) 6/ : 9.9612.85-13.15 18.50-19.50
:
LONG GRAIN :
Harvested acres (mil.) : 2.19 2.05
Yield (pounds/acre) : 6,689 6,929
Beginning stocks : 32.7 28.5 11.7
Production : 146.2 142.2 142.0
Supply, total 7/ : 193.1 185.7 169.7
Domestic & Residual 3/ : 91.9 89.0 88.0
Exports 8/ : 72.7 85.0 72.0
Use, total : 164.6 174.0 160.0
Ending stocks : 28.5 11.7 9.7
:
:
MEDIUM & SHORT GRAIN :
Harvested acres (mil.) : 0.64 0.70
Yield (pounds/acre) : 7,484 7,942
Beginning stocks : 9.4 10.0 9.1
Production : 47.5 55.3 55.0
Supply, total 7/ : 63.4 71.8 70.6
Domestic & Residual 3/ : 34.7 35.7 38.0
Exports 8/ : 18.7 27.0 26.0
Use, total : 53.4 62.7 64.0
Ending stocks : 10.0 9.1 6.6
===============================================================================
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning August
1. 2/ Includes the following quantities of broken kernel rice (type
undetermined) not included in estimates of beginning stocks by type (in mil.
cwt): 2006/07-0.9; 2007/08-0.8; 2008/09-0.8. 3/ Residual includes unreported
use, processing losses, and estimating errors. Use by type may not add to
total rice use because of the difference in brokens between beginning and
ending stocks. 4/ Includes rough rice and milled rice exports. Milled rice
exports are converted to an equivalent rough basis. 5/ Expressed as a percent,
i.e., the total quantity of whole kernel and broken rice produced divided by
the quantity of rough rice milled. 6/ Marketing-year weighted average price
received by farmers. 7/ Includes imports. 8/ Exports by type of rice are
estimated. * Planted acres reported in March 31, 2008, "Prospective
Plantings." Harvested acres are estimated using the average
harvested-to-planted ratios by State and rice class, 2005-2007. Projected
yield is derived from the trend yields by rice class for the period, 1990-2007.
U. S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/
===============================================================================
: : : 2008/09 Projections
Item : 2006/07 : 2007/08 :===============================
: : Est. : May
===============================================================================
: Million acres
Area :
Planted : 15.27 10.83 9.39 *
Harvested : 12.73 10.49 8.39 *
:
: Pounds
Yield per harvested :
acre : 814 879 830 *
:
: Million 480 pound bales
:
Beginning stocks 2/ : 6.07 9.48 9.90
Production : 21.59 19.21 14.50
Imports : 0.02 0.02 0.02
Supply, total : 27.68 28.70 24.42
Domestic use : 4.94 4.60 4.30
Exports : 13.01 14.20 14.50
Use, total : 17.95 18.80 18.80
Unaccounted 3/ : 0.25 0.00 0.02
Ending stocks : 9.48 9.90 5.60
:
Avg. farm price 4/ : 46.5 56.4 5/
===============================================================================
1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may
not add due to rounding. 2/ Based on Bureau of Census data. 3/ Reflects the
difference between the previous season's supply less total use and ending
stocks based on Bureau of Census data. 4/ Cents per pound for upland cotton.
The 2007/08 price is a weighted average for August-March. 5/ USDA is
prohibited by law from publishing cotton price projections. * Planted area is
reported in March 31 "Prospective Plantings." Projected harvested area based on
1998-2007 U.S. average abandonment. Projected yield per harvested acre based on
2005-2007 average yields by State.
Note: Public Law 106-78, signed October 22, 1999, requires the Secretary of
Agriculture to estimate and report the U.S. upland cotton season-ending
stocks-to-use ratio, excluding projected raw cotton imports but including the
quantity of raw cotton imports that has been imported during the marketing
year. Pursuant to this requirement, the estimated ratio for 2007/08 is 54.6
percent.
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