Hog Outlook
Glenn Grimes & Ron Plain
University of Missouri
November 20, 2009
Pork exports for September 2009 were up 3.8 percent from 12 months earlier. Pork imports for September were up 16.3 percent from a year earlier. All of the major pork exporters to the U.S. showed substantial increases in their sales to the U.S. in September.
Pork exports from the U.S. for January-September were down 17.07 percent from 2008. The big decreases in exports were to China-Hong Kong and Russia.
Pork imports for January-September were down 0.5 percent from 12 months earlier. Net pork exports as a percent of production declined from 17.42 percent in 2008 to 14.07 percent in 2009 for January-September.
Live hog imports from Canada for January-September were down 32.7 percent from a year earlier. Feeder pig imports during September were down 26.5 percent from last year and slaughter hog imports were down 50.3 percent from 2008.
There is a high probability that the low-price month for 2009 will be August. If this comes true it will be the first time of record for August to be the low-price month of the year with the exception of 1945 with price controls during World War II.
Feeder pig prices at United Tel-o-Auction this week were $8-20 per cwt above two weeks ago. The prices by weight group at United this week were 50-60 pounds $72-82 per cwt and 60-pounds-plus $72.50 per cwt.
Feeder pig prices last week nationally were basically steady with a week earlier. The average price for 10-pound, 50-54 percent lean was $35.30 per head. For 40-pound pigs, the average price was $40.06 per head. The formula price for 10-pound pigs was $37.43 per head and the formula price for 40-pound pigs was $55.52 per head. The cash or spot market price for 10-pound pigs was $34.00 per head and 40-pound pigs was $39.28 per head.
Live barrow and gilt weights in Iowa-Minnesota last week were down 0.9 pound per head from a week earlier at 270.4 pounds but up 2.8 pounds per head from a year earlier.
Retail pork prices in October were down 0.9 percent from September and down 4.3 percent from October 2008. Retail pork prices for January-October 2009 were up 0.6 percent from a year earlier. The processor-wholesaler margins were down 5.5 percent, and live hog prices for January-October were 17.4 percent below 12 months earlier.
Pork carcass cutouts for Thursday afternoon at $56.94 per cwt was down $0.18 per cwt from a week earlier.
Live hog prices Friday morning were $1-2 per cwt lower compared to seven days earlier. The weighted average negotiated carcass price Friday morning were $1.13-2.56 per cwt lower compared to last week.
The top live prices Friday morning were: Peoria $34.00 per cwt, Zumbrota, Minnesota, $35.00 per cwt and interior Missouri $36.50 per cwt. The weighted average negotiated carcass prices Friday morning by area were: western Cornbelt $50.89 per cwt, eastern Cornbelt $49.36 per cwt, Iowa-Minnesota $50.82 per cwt and nation $49.83 per cwt.
Slaughter this week under Federal Inspection was estimated at 2322 thousand head, down 1.9 percent from a year earlier.
There will be no letter next week due to the Thanksgiving Holiday.