Hog Outlook
Glenn Grimes & Ron Plain
University of Missouri
November 6, 2009
Pork production for January-September was down 1.5 percent from a year earlier. The number of hogs slaughtered was down 2.6 percent. Therefore hog weights were 1.1 pounds heavier this year than in 2008.
Even though pork production was down 1.5 percent, due to smaller exports, pork consumption per capita in the U.S. was up 2.5 percent for the first nine months of 2009 compared to 12 months earlier.
For January-September pork demand at the consumer level was up four percent, beef consumer demand was down 2.3 percent, broiler demand was down 2.9 percent and turkey consumer demand was up 2.9 percent from a year earlier.
Live hog demand was down 4.7 percent for January-September and live fed cattle demand was down 8.5 percent. The difference between pork demand and live hog demand was exports. The reason why live fed cattle demand was down much more than beef demand was exports and very weak hotel and restaurant demand for beef.
Nationally last week feeder pig prices were $1-2 per head higher than a week earlier. Pigs weighing 10 pounds 50-54 percent lean averaged $32.03 per head. Pigs weighing 40 pounds averaged $36.41 per head. Formula price for 10 pound pigs was $34.79 per head and formula price for 40 pound pigs was $46.33 per head. Cash or spot market price for 10 pound pigs was $28.14 per head. Cash price for 40 pound pigs was $34.74 per head.
Pigs at United producers Tel-o-Auction this week were steady to $10 per cwt higher than two weeks earlier. All of the pigs at United weighed between 50-60 pounds and sold for $51-74.50 per cwt. The relatively strong future market for lean hogs is helping to provide strength to feeder pig prices.
Pork product cutout this Thursday afternoon at $59.66 per cwt of carcass was up $0.98 per cwt from a week earlier. Loins at $65.63 per cwt were up $0.63 per cwt, Boston butts at $59.86 per cwt were up $2.09 per cwt, hams at $59.66 per cwt were down $0.43 per cwt and bellies at $72.70 per cwt were up $0.02 per cwt from seven days earlier.
Average weight live for barrow and gilts last week in Iowa-Minnesota was 270.4 pounds per head, up 0.5 pound from a week earlier and up 3.2 pounds from a year earlier. Hog weights in early winter may challenge the record high, set in January 2006.
Canada continues to reduce their hog herd. The total hog inventory in Canada October 1 was down 7.3 percent and sows and bred gilts inventory was down 4.4 percent. Farrowing intentions for October-December 2009 are down 6.4 percent and farrowing intentions for January-March 2010 are down 3.6 percent from 12 months earlier. This was the 19th consecutive quarter for sow herd reductions in Canada. The total sow herd is down 16.7 percent on October 2009 compared to January 2005.
Top cash live hog prices Friday morning were $1.50-4.00 per cwt higher compared to a week earlier. The weighted average negotiated carcass prices Friday morning were $0.56-2.56 per cwt higher compared to seven days earlier.
The top live prices Friday morning were: Peoria $34 per cwt, Zumbrota, Minnesota, $36 per cwt and interior Missouri $38 per cwt. The weighted average negotiated carcass prices Friday morning were: western Cornbelt $52.88 per cwt, eastern Cornbelt $51.81 per cwt, Iowa-Minnesota $53.50 per cwt and nation $52.03 per cwt.
Slaughter this week under Federal Inspection was 2302 thousand head down 0.1 percent from a year earlier.