Cattle On Feed

Ron Plain
University of Missouri
January 20, 2012

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USDA's January cattle on feed report had no major surprises.

USDA said December placements of cattle into large feed yards (over 1,000 head capacity) were 5.9% lower than in December 2010. The average of pre-release trade forecasts was for December placements to be down 5.8%. For all of 2011, placements were 2.0% larger than in 2010.

USDA said marketings of fed cattle from large feed yards during December totaled 1.796 million head, down 1.9% compared to December 2010. The trade forecast December marketings to be down 3.0%. Steer and heifer slaughter during December was down 7.7%. In recent months, marketings from large feedlots have been high relative to steer and heifer slaughter. For all of 2011, fed marketings were up 2.4%, but steer and heifer slaughter was down 1.4%. Why the difference? Presumably a larger share of the cattle on feed is in the large feedlots included in these monthly surveys.

The total number of cattle on feed at the start of January was up 3.0% compared to January 2011. The pre-release survey of forecasts predicted an increase of 3.3%. The number of cattle on feed has been above the year-earlier level for each of the last 20 months. The January inventory is the highest on-feed number for any January since 2008.

The number of cattle placed on feed weighing less than 600 pounds was up 19.3% from the previous December. Placements of feeders weighing 600 to 700 pounds were down 3.1%; placements weighing 700 to 800 pounds were down 4.9%, and placements weighing more than 800 pounds were down 2.4% compared to a year earlier. The calculated average weight of cattle placed on feed during December was 0.9% lower than in December 2010.

The number of steers on feed was up 1.4% at the start of 2012. Heifers on feed were up 5.6%. Heifers made up 37.9% of the cattle on feed January 1, the highest of any January since 2004.

The average retail price for choice beef during December, $5.016 per pound, was up 1.5 cents from November, up 57.8 cents from December 2010, and record high for the fifth month in a row. Slaughter steer prices averaged $121/cwt in December, the second highest month ever.

Cattle on Feed, 1000+ Capacity Feedlots, U.S

                          2010      2011      2012   Percent of
                          ---- - 1,000 head  -----    Year Ago
On Feed December 1       11,620    12,065             103.8%
Placed during December    1,789     1,683              94.1%
Marketed during December  1,830     1,796              98.1%
Other Disappearance          65        91             140.0%
On Feed January 1        10,983    11,514    11,861   103.0%

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