2007 Winter Wheat Condition in Missouri

Ann Ulmer, Economist, Commercial Agriculture Program
June 29, 2007

The condition of the winter wheat in Missouri has suffered because of the extremely low temperatures in early April. Figure 1 shows the percent of wheat in poor or very poor condition compared to the 2000-2006 average. Slightly under fifty percent of the wheat in Missouri is in poor or very poor condition. The March Acreage Intentions for 2007 report released by the USDA, NASS estimated 1.05 million acres of wheat planted. Based on the number of acres planted, a historical (2000-2006) harvest rate of 89 percent of acres planted and an average yield of 53 bushels per acre, Missouri would expect to harvest 49.4 million bushels of wheat. The June 29 Crop Release (USDA, NASS) estimated that 850,000 acres of wheat will be harvested. Assuming a production yield of 45 bushels per acre, 38.3 million bushels of wheat will be harvested. (Figure 2) At $5.50 per bushel Kansas City cash price, this 11.1 million bushel difference equates to an income decrease of over $61 million to Missouri producers.

Figure 1.

Source: USDA, NASS Crop Progress and Condition Reports

Figure 2.

* Based on 1.05 million acres planted and a historical (2000-2006) harvest rate of 89 percent of acres planted and an average yield of 53 bushels per acre
Source: USDA, NASS Crop Progress and Condition Reports