Chapter 2: Current Competitive Position of Missouri’s Beef IndustryMissouri’s apparent comparative advantage in feeder calf production may be partially explained by a cost advantage in purchasing the major inputs of production: land, pasture rent, real estate taxes, corn, hay, and farm labor. 2.1 Cost of Production As a transition state from the Corn Belt to the Great Plains, Missouri exhibits lower land costs, lower pasture rental rates, and lower property tax rates than other Corn Belt states. In addition, because Missouri is near major feed grain producing areas, corn and feed prices tend to be lower in Missouri than in areas further south or west. 2.1.1 Farm Real Estate Values The cost of farm real estate is critical to the overhead cost associated with hay and pasture. Missouri farmland is less expensive than land in most of the states to the east, and more expensive than most of the states to the west. The average value per acre of farm real estate is shown in figure 2.1.1-1. Figure 2.1.1-1 Farm Real Estate: Average Value per Acre, by State, Jan. 1, 200326
26USDA, NASS 2.1.2 Pastureland Value Pastureland values as of 2003 for the United States are shown in figure 2.1.2-1. The land value for each state varies, mainly due to location, land productivity, and pressure from alternative uses. Missouri currently has an average pastureland value of $1,100 per acre, significantly above the pastureland values in states to the west and north of Missouri. The cost of the pastureland as a feed resource for beef cow enterprises depends upon both the cost of the land and upon how many acres of pasture have to be purchased or rented to support a beef cow. Figure 2.1.2-1 Pasture: Average Value per Acre on Jan. 1, 200327
27USDA, NASS 2.1.3 Pastureland Cash Rent Pasture rental rates for each state in 2003 are compared in figure 2.1.3-1. In 2002, Missouri had an average rental rate of $23.50 per acre for pastureland. It is important to note that pasture rental rates in different regions of Missouri varied by as much as 50%, (see figure 2.1.3-2). The range went from a high of $26.50 in Central Missouri to a low of $17.50 in South Central Missouri. These rates reflected the relative scarcity of rental pasture and also the productivity of the pastureland and its value to the lessee. Figure 2.1.3-1 Pasture Rented for Cash: Avg. Cash Rent Per Acre, by State, 200328
Figure 2.1.3-2 Pasture Cash Rent Per Acre, Missouri, By District, 200329
28USDA, NASS 2.1.4 Agricultural Real Estate Taxes Average real estate tax rates for the United States are shown in figure 2.1.4-1. Missouri real estate tax rates were much lower than tax rates on the coasts, the northeast, the southeast, and much of Corn Belt. Missouri had agricultural real estate taxes that were comparable with the Great Plains states. Figure 2.1.4-1 Average Agricultural Real Estate Taxes $/Acre in 199530
30 USDA, ERS. Agricultural Real Estate Tax Survey data. 2.1.5 Corn Prices The price of corn is a major component of the cost of cattle feeding. The corn basis price is the difference in price between a local bid price for corn and the nearby corn futures contract at the Chicago Board of Trade. Spatial maps of corn basis prices reflect the regional supply and demand differences for corn at any given moment. During harvest season, major corn producing areas show a depression in corn prices as storage elevators lower their harvest time bid as they fill with corn. The gradually rising basis throughout the year reflects the elevator’s recapture of storage costs as they gradually sell corn to users. Figure 2.1.5-1 depicts the corn price basis across most of the U.S. Corn Belt. Corn prices move higher as one moves farther south (i.e., along the Mississippi River) and west from the Corn Belt. Figure 2.1.5-1 Seasonal Corn Price Basis Maps,31
31 Derived from Montana State University, Extension Agricultural Marketing, Spatial Basis Report http://www.montana.edu/extensionecon/Marketing/spatial.html 2.1.6 Hay Production and Prices Missouri is a major hay producing state, harvesting between 3.6 and 4 million acres of hay annually in recent years. Approximately 10% of Missouri hay is alfalfa; most of the rest is tall fescue or mixed grass-legume hay containing fescue. Most hay is not sold on the open market but is instead used on-farm. The prices in table 2.1.6-1 reflect market prices but may overestimate the value of hay used on-farm. It is important to note that a significant part of the prices reported in table 2.1.6-1 reflect transportation costs. Reports of large round bales of tall fescue trading in the $35 to $45 per ton at harvest are common in Missouri. When reviewing nationwide hay markets, few states report hay prices lower than Missouri’s. The exception is the gulf coast region where coastal Bermuda grass is often priced lower than tall fescue.32 Hay production is distributed throughout Missouri. However, there are significant concentrations of counties in the southwest and central parts of the state where hay production exceeds 60,000 tons annually (figure 2.1.6-1). These areas of the state also tend to have the greatest concentrations of beef cows. Table 2.1.6-1 Average Prices Received by Farmers, Missouri, 1999-200333
Figure 2.1.6-1 Missouri Hay Production, By County, in 200234
32Missouri Agricultural Statistics Service, Farm Facts 2.1.7 Farm Labor Farm labor wages in Missouri have risen strongly in recent years, reflecting a national trend. Wages tended to be near national farm labor wage rate averages. In the five-year period of 1999 to 2003, the price of livestock labor in Missouri and Iowa increased from $7.35 per hour to $9.83 an hour. This $2.48 per hour increase equates to a 34% rise in labor costs or growth at an annual compound rate of 6%. Table 2.1.7-1 Farm Labor and Wage Rates, Missouri and Iowa, 1999-200335
35USDA, NASS. Farm Labor 2.1.8 Nationwide Cost and Return Comparison The USDA’s Economic Research Service estimates regional differences in costs and returns for cow-calf producers using data collected through its Agricultural Resource Management Surveys. The most recent summary of costs and returns for cow-calf operations was completed using 1996 data.36 Between survey years, the USDA uses the baseline survey data to project annual commodity costs and returns. Rather than use state or political boundaries to categorize regions, the Economic Research Service has delineated regions of the country that have similar resource endowments and management patterns. These farm resource regions, which are depicted in figure 2.1.8-1, are not necessarily contiguous.37 Missouri contains two of these regions: Heartland and Eastern Upland. The Eastern Upland region is concentrated in the southwest and south central regions of Missouri, roughly corresponding to the portion of the state that lies south of US Highway 50. The Heartland region covers the rest of the state. Table 2.1.8-138 and section 2.1.9 describe the cow-calf production costs and returns by these farm resource regions. Information concerning the Northern Crescent and Southern Seaboard regions for cow-calf costs and returns is not available.
Figure 2.1.8-1 USDA-ERS, Farm Resource Regions
36Characteristics and Production Costs of US Cow Calf Operations, USDA Statistical Bulletin Number 974-3
http://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/sb974-3/sb974-3.pdf Table 2.1.8-1 Cow-Calf Production Costs and Returns per Bred Cow, 2002
2.1.9 Interpretation of the Missouri Costs and Returns Survey A careful review of the cost and return estimates depicted in table 2.1.8-1 allows one to better understand what drives regional competitiveness in the U.S. cow-calf industry. As depicted on the map in figure 2.1.8-1, Missouri breaks into two distinct farm resource regions implying that Missouri cow-calf operations employ two very different management systems. As a generalization, the farms in Missouri’s northern half, (Heartland region), have higher investment costs, employ more management input, and produce product of relatively high value. Compared to operations in the Heartland region cow-calf operations in southern Missouri (Eastern Uplands region) generally have a lower level of capital invested per cow, employ less management input, and produce product of relatively low value. The Heartland region and the Eastern Upland region, which include but are not limited to Missouri, have the smallest average herd sizes compared with other reported regions.
Value of Production (Section A of table 2.1.8-1)
Operating Costs (Section B of table 2.1.8-1)
Overhead Costs (Section C of table 2.1.8-1) The Eastern Uplands region had the third highest cost for machinery and equipment capital recovery costs in the reported regions but managed to have the lowest total overhead costs. This was because the Eastern Upland region had the lowest labor costs among all the reported regions. Small herds typically have high overhead costs per cow. The Heartland and Eastern Uplands regions had the smallest herd sizes among the reported regions, (Section E of table 2.1.8-1).
Total Costs (Section D of table 2.1.8-1)
Value of Production Less Total Costs (Section D of table 2.1.8-1) The Heartland region could be described as a system managed for top production, in which overhead costs were allowed to get out of line. In contrast, the Eastern Upland region could be described as a system managed for least cost that did not achieve a level of production sufficient for competitive levels of profitability.
Weaning Percentage (Section E of table 2.1.8-1)
Calving Season (Section E of table 2.1.8-1) 2.1.10 Beef Cow Potential Annual Stocking Rate Beef cow-calf operations are typically very capital intensive due primarily to land costs. One of the key determinants of investment efficiency is the amount of pastureland needed per cow. Using data from the most recent Census of Agriculture (2002), table 2.1.10-1 ranks selected states in terms of the land investment needed per cow. An average potential annual stocking rate for each of these states was determined by dividing the state’s total pastureland by its total beef cow inventory. Iowa pastures are potentially stocked at an average rate of 3.69 acres per cow per year, earning it the top rank among leading beef states for potential annual stocking rate Missouri ranks sixth in potential annual stocking rate, with an average of 5.49 acres per cow per year in the state. Table 2.1.10-1 Potential Annual Stocking Rates for the Top Ten Beef Cow States and Surrounding States of Missouri39
392002 Census of Agriculture and USDA, NASS 2.1.11 Land Investment per Cow Average pasture values from the 2002 Census of Agriculture were used to derive the typical land investment per cow for selected states. The potential annual average stocking rate multiplied by the average pasture value equals land investment per cow in this analysis. In table 2.1.11-1, the land investment per cow was estimated for all of the major beef cow states and all of the states neighboring Missouri. North Dakota ranked first, requiring the lowest land investment per cow. This was the result of the state’s moderate potential annual stocking rate and low average pasture cost. Missouri ranked eighth among the states considered. Interestingly, the state with the most cattle, Texas, ranks last of the states considered in terms of land investment per cow, due to its relatively low potential annual stocking density and high per acre land cost. Table 2.1.11-1 Land Investment per Cow for the Top 10 Beef Cow States and Surrounding States of Missouri40
402002 Census of Agriculture and USDA, Agricultural Land Values 2002 (Pasture: Average Value per Acre) 2.2 Missouri Farmland Appreciation A prime motivation for maintaining a beef herd in Missouri is land appreciation. Beef cows may be seen as a way to pay operating expenses while owning land for appreciation purposes. A prime motivator behind many of the 58,000 beef cow operations in Missouri may be to store and build wealth over time from the compounding annual appreciation on land. Profits from part-time beef cattle operations may be used to pay operating expenses for a farm but long-term compound land appreciation is what justifies the decision to invest family assets into a beef operation. A review of land price appreciation in Missouri during the twentieth century demonstrates the wisdom of that particular investment (table 2.2-1). Although there were times during the century when land prices declined, land values appreciated at a compound rate of about 6% per year over the last 90 years. A 6% compounded return results in land values doubling every 12 years. Whenever beef cattle producers are challenged about low returns in the cow-calf business, many respond, "farmers live poor and die rich." Land appreciation and the enforced savings from a low profit enterprise may be two key explanations behind this response. Several studies of small business owners have shown that they typically build more wealth over their lives than wage earners. Business owners often set their living expenses lower than their expected earnings to account for the variability in their expected earnings. Over time, this enforced savings builds wealth through long term compounding. Missouri beef cow operations may be a special case of this small business phenomenon where the enforced savings is the capital appreciation on land. Table 2.2-1 Appreciation of Missouri Farmland this Century
2.3 Regional Cattle Price Relationships When comparing average feeder calf prices across the U.S., regional price differentials are clearly evident. While prices vary due to quality and weight differences in the cattle, most regional price differentials reflect transportation cost to major feedlot areas (figure 2.3-1). Eighty percent of the cattle on feed in the United States are finished in Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Colorado, and Nebraska. Figure 2.3-1 Feeder Steer Prices in Major Feeding Areas, October 200141
41USDA, Agricultural Marketing Service. National Feeder Cattle Summary (report no SJ LS650) 700-800 pound steers, medium and large, No. 1. Weekly data averaged for month of October 2001. 2.4 Marketing Channels for Cattle
Cattle Moving to Slaughter
Feeder Cattle Table 2.4-1 Number of Livestock Auctions in U.S. and Missouri43
The number of cattle (all classes) sold on commission in Missouri averaged 125% of Missouri’s calf crop from 1996 to 2000. This number was higher than the annual calf crop because of the sale of cull cows, the sale of a given animal more than once through the auction system, and cattle sold on commission in Missouri that originated in other states. Auction markets have traditionally been the most cost effective way to market feeder calves from a large number of small producers. Table 2.4-2 Commission Sales in Missouri Compared to Calf Crop
42USDA, Grain Inspection, Packers and Stockyards Administration (GIPSA), Packers and Stockyards
Statistical Reports, various issues. 2.5 Purebred Industry Missouri purebred producers are an important part of the U.S. seedstock industry. There are 21 mainstream breed associations in the U.S. In eight of these associations, Missouri producers ranked among the top five states in the nation in terms of animal registrations in 2002 according to the National Pedigreed Livestock Council. Missouri ranks second in Angus registrations; third in Charolais, Simmental, and Limousin registrations; fourth in Gelbvieh, Salers, and Braunvieh registrations; and fifth in Shorthorn registrations. Table 2.5-1 lists the number of animal registrations per breed. Table 2.5-1 Cattle Purebred Registrations for the U.S.46
462002 National Pedigreed Livestock Council Report 2.6 Economic Impact of the Missouri Beef Industry In 2002, cattle were raised on 68,000 of the state’s 107,000 farms. Sales of cattle and calves generated cash receipts of $821 million, or 19% of the state’s total farm cash receipts.47 As those farm level revenues were spent for goods and services, more than $1.5 billion dollars in economic activity was generated in the state. Most of this activity was in rural areas.48 Table 2.6-1 records the distribution of cattle sales by county throughout the state of Missouri during 2002. The number of beef cattle sold in each county is estimated as a percentage of the state’s total cattle production. Gross income by county for sales of cattle and calves is also presented. This income is spent to purchase agricultural inputs and pay family living expenses in rural communities throughout Missouri. The multiplier effect supports thousands of additional jobs in the state and provides an additional $710 million annual impact on Missouri’s economy. Table 2.6-1 Farm Level Economic Impact of Missouri’s Beef Industry49
47Missouri Agricultural Statistics Service, Farm Facts 2003, http://agebb.missouri.edu/mass/index.htm | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||