The Missouri Beef Audit:

Chapter 1: Historical Economic, Structural, and Competitive Trend Analysis

June 2009

1.1 Characteristics of Missouri's Beef Industry

Commercial beef cattle operationsare organized in three basic ways: cow-calf, stocker, and fed cattle operations. A break down of cattle inventory by size category is provided in exhibit 1.1-1. Inventory in cow-calf operations include beef cows, calves under 500 pounds, beef cow replacements, and bulls 500 pounds and over. Stockers included other heifers (non-replacements) and steers over 500 pounds, minus cattle on feed. Dairy cattle make up the remainder of cattle reported. In January 2009, 78% of Missouri’s total cattle inventories were held by cow-calf operations, 17% of the inventory held as stockers, and less than 2% of the inventory was cattle on feed.

Exhibit 1.1­1 Cattle and Calves in Missouri, Number on Farm, 2005­2009

Class	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009
	(Thousand Head)
All Cattle & Calves	4,400	4,500	4,450	4,250	4,250
All Cows That HaveCalved	2,240	2,320	2,260	2,180	2,100
Beef Cows	2,121	2,206	2,146	2,070	1,992
Dairy Cows	119	114	114	110	108
Heifers-500 Pounds & Over	630	670	670	610	630
Beef Cow Replacements	290	340	330	300	320
Milk Cow Replacements	65	70	70	60	40
Other Heifers	275	260	270	250	270
Steers- 500Pounds & Over	460	450	460	440	510
Bulls- 500 Pounds & Over	120	130	120	110	110
Calves Under 500 Pounds	950	930	940	930	900
Cattle andCalves on Feed 1/	70	70	75	65	60
1/ Also included in the classes above
Source: USDA, Natioonal Agricultural Statistics Service

Exhibit 1.1-2 Missouri Cattle Flow Chart in 2008

Source: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service and Economic Reseearch Service

The Missouri cattle flowchart depicts a snapshot of the flow of cattle and calves from Missoouri’s farms into growing, finishing, and marketing channels,including how much money flows into the various support industries. USDA estimates from 2008 shape the backbone of this snapshot; however, differing estimation dates and derivation techniques may cause the estimates to be inconsistent with official estimates.

Appeendix A contains a copy of this flowchart and all the supporting references, derivations, and weblinks to the data sources.

1.1.1 Evolution as a Cow­Calf State

Over the last century, many Missouri farmers accepted off-farm jobs in addition to their farming activities. Beef cow-calf operations were manageable as small or part-time farms because they required relatively little labor except when hay feeding was necessary and during calving. Because cow-calf enterprises fit well with part-time farmers' available labor and management, Missouri grew as a cow-calf state.

As exhibit 1.1.1-1 depicts, the states with the most beef cow operations are also the states with the most farms. States with large numbers of small farms such as Texas, Kentucky and Oklahoma are also major beef cow states. Missouri ranks second in the nation in the number of farm operations and beef cow operations.

Like most of the other top ranking beef cow states, close to half of the farms in Missouri are beef cow operations. More than 90% of the beef cow operations in Missouri have less than 100 cows.

Missouri had 107,800 farms in 2007. Fifty-five percent, or 59,000 of those, had cattle (beef or dairy) on them. Eighty-eight percent of the cattle farms were beef cow operations, composing 52,000 of the 59,000 cattle farms.

Exhibit 1.1.1-1 States with Large Numbers of Farms and Beef Operations, 2007

State	U.S. rank in number of farms	U.S. rank in beef cow operations	Number of farms	Number of beef cow operations	Beef cow operations as a % of total farms	Beef cow operations with less than 100 cows as a % of total farms	Beef cow operations with less than 100 cows as a % of beef operations
Texas	1	1	247,500	132,000	53%	49%	91%
Missouri	2	2	107.800	52,000	48%	44%	91%
Iowa	3	10	92.600	25,000	27%	20%	75%
Oklahoma	4	3	86.600	47,000	54%	49%	90%
Kentucky	5	5	85,300	38,000	45%	42%	95%
Minnesota	6	19	81,000	14,400	18%	17%	95%
California	6	25	81,000	11,800	15%	13%	88%

Source: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Because of the pasture resources and the large number of small farms, Missouri has become a major producer of feeder calves. During the 20th century, Missouri's national importance as a feeder calf producer grew. In 1920, 3.2% of the beef cows in the United States were in Missouri (exhibit 1.1.1-2). By the year 2009, Missouri cattlemen held 6.3% of the nation's cow herd.

Exhibit 1.1.1-2 Comparisons of U.S. and Missouri Beef Cow Inventories

Year	U.S. Beef Cows	Missouri Beef Cows	MO as % of U.S. Beef Cows
1920	12,525,000	395,000	3.2%
1930	9,162,000	338,000	3.7%
1940	10,676,000	429,000	4.0%
1950	16,743,000	594,000	3.5%
1960	26,344,000	1,135,000	4.3%
1970	36,689,600	1,910,000	5.2%
1980	37,107,400	2,278,000	6.1%
1990	32,454,700	1,914,000	5.9%
2000	33,575,000	2,062,000	6.1%
2009	31,671,300	1,992,000	6.3%

Source: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Location of Missouri’s Beef Industry

Beef cows are located in all 114 counties in Missouri. The counties with the highest populations of beef cows are concentrated in the southwest and south central regions of the state. The distribution of beef cows by county are shown in exhibit 1.1.1-3.

Exhibit 1.1.1-3 Beef Cow Numbers in Missouri Counties - January 1, 2008

Trends in Beef Cow Locations in Missouri

Trends in the geographic distribution ofbeef cows in Missouri are illustrated inexhibit 1.1.1-4. Regions are those defined by the USDA - National Agricultural Statistics Service. From 1990 to 2000, beef cow numbers increased in seven out of the nine regions. From 2000 to 2009, beef cow numbers decreased in all regions except the northeast and east regions. The central region held the largest percentage of Missouri's beef cow inventory in 2009, with 23% of Missouri's total beef cow inventory.

Exhibit 1.1.1-4 Changes in Missouri Beef Cow Inventory, by Regions, 1990 to 2009

Source: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

The top ten Missouri beef cow counties in 2009 have shown some interesting trends in beef cow numbers since 1990. Although Lawrence County is currenty the Missouri leader in beef cow numbers, it made a remarkable increase from 1990 to 2009 to gain the position it is in today. As depicted inexhibit 1.1.1-5 several of the top 10 counties show large changes in the 1990's.

Exhibit 1.1.1-5 Top 10 Beef Cow Counties in Missouri

Source: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

During the decade of the 1990's, several Missouri counties with large numbers of dairy cattle experienced a substitution of beef cows for dairy cows. Three counties inparticular demonstrate this trend: Texas, Lawrence, and Barry Counties. These three counties are among the top ten beef-producing counties in Missouri.

Exhibit 1.1.1-6 Shift from Dairy to Beef Cattle in Major Cattle Counties

Source: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

The U.S. and Missouri dairy operations are consolidating more rapidly into fewer, larger farms than are cow-calf operations in the U.S. and Missouri. As dairy farmers discontinue their dairy operations, they may continue to operate their farms, but replace dairy cows with beef cows. One consequence of this substitution is a drop in gross income from approximately $2,500 per cow per year with dairy cows to approximately $550 per cow per year with beef cows. A corresponding drop in purchased imputs is another consequence of converting from dairy to beef. Unless other agricultural enterprises grow in these counties, the overall impact will be a decline in economic activity from this transition.

1.1.2 Changes in Beef Cow Inventory

Cattle inventory numbers in the U.S. and Missouri tend to peak in roughly 10-year increments, causing low prices and liquidation until the stage is set for the next expansion phase of the 10-year cycle. Missouri’s 2009 beef cow inventory is only slightly ower (0.4%) than it was in 1985 (exhibit 1.1.2-1) while the U.S. inventory is 10% lower.

Exhibit 1.1.2-1 Change in Beef Cow Inventory since 1985

Source: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

1.1.3 Cattle Cycle

The U.S. cattle inventory tends to move in acyclical pattern averaging 10-12 years in length. Over the last 130 years, the shortest U.S. cattle cycle was 7 years in length and the longest lasted 16 years. The cyclical variation in inventory produces a countercyclical varation in cattle prices. The simplest explanation is that cow-calf producers tend to act as if the current calf prices will continue in to the future. When cattle prices are high, beef producers respond by retaining heifer calves to use as replacements, in the hope that a larger herd will result in a larger income. This rarely works well since the financial reward for retaining heifers will be two to three years away and current market revenues from the sale of heifers will be sacrificed. As the number of beef cows increases nationally, the number of slaughter cattle being produced consequently increases. As a result, prices are eventually depressed as cattle and beef products exceed supply. As beef cattle prices decline below break-even levels, beef producers respond by reducing herd size or liquidating to minimize losses.

Exhibit 1.1.3­1 U.S. Cattle Cycle

Source: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service and Livestock Marketing Information Center

A corollary explanation is that cash flow needs drive heifer retention and thus herd expansion. When cattle prices are low, beef producers must sell proportionally more oftheir heifer crop in order to meet cash flow obligations. The net effect is that the number of heifers available for use as replacements is limited and herd size remains static or contracts. As prices increase, fewer total calves must be sold to meet cash flow obligations. Beefproducers respond by retaining a larger proportion of the heifer calves they produce to use as replacements. It is likely that the inventory cycles typical of the beef industry results from a combination of producer attitudes toward cattle prices and the need to meet cash-flow obligations.

Exhibit 1.1.3-2 depicts two decades of cattle prices and inventories in Missouri and demonstrates the manner in which cattle owners respond to price cycles. Worthy of note is that the top of the price cycle in 1991 came soon after the trough of the inventory cycle. Ten years later in 2001, another price peak followed a relatively low cow inventory.

Exhibit 1.1.3-2 Missouri Cattle Cycle

Source: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Beef cow inventories in states surrounding Missouri are shown in exhibit 1.1.3-3. All of these states except Iowa and Illinois increased beef cow inventory between 1990 and 2000. Between 1990 and 2000, the U.S. cow herd gained 4% while Missouri gained 8%. Only three states below (Kansas, Kentucky, and Oklahoma) increased their herds between the years 2000 and 2009.

Exhibit 1.1.3­3 Changes in Select States Beef Cow Inventory

State	Thousand Head			Percent Change
	1990	2000	2009	Beef Cows 1990-00	Beef Cows 2000-09
Arkansas	901	928	891	3% increase	4% decrease
Illinois	493	480	480	3% decrease	-
Iowa	1,115	1,025	925	8% decrease	10% decrease
Kansas	1,362	1,492	1,508	10% increase	11% increase
Kentucky	1,045	1,050	1,114	1% increase	6% increase
Missouri	1,914	2,062	1,992	8% increase	4% decrease
Nebraska	1,760	1,974	1,851	12% increase	6% decrease
Oklahoma	1,860	1,898	2,038	2% increase	7% increase
Tennessee	1,010	1,034	951	2% increase	8% decrease
Texas	5,110	5,430	5,170	6% increase	5% decrease
United States	32,455	33,575	31,671	4% increase	6% decrease

Source: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Major grain producing states tend to decrease cattle numbers the fastest when beef cattle prices are unfavorable and are among the slowest to increase inventory when prices are strong. Within Missouri, the same phenomenon can be observed among counties. Those that produce the most grain also decreased cattle numbers the most during the 1980’s and increased cattle inventories the least during the 1990’s. With each passing decade, producers become more specialized. Crop farmers concentrate more on crops. Cattlemen focus more on cattle. Because cattlemen are more attuned to the rhythms ofthe commodity cycle of their particular industry, they may respond the fastest to price incentives.

1.1.4 Top Beef Cow States

Exhibit 1.1.4-1 compares the number of beef cows in the top 10 cow-calf states and the states surrounding Missouri. Texas controls more than twice the beef cow inventory of any other state. Missouri currently ranks number three in the U.S. in beef cow inventory in the year 2009. Missouri, Oklahoma, and Nebraska closely compete with one another for the number two position.

Exhibit 1.1.4-1 Top Ten Beef Cow Inventory and MO's Surrounding States, 2009

Source: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Exhibit 1.1.4-2 Beef Cow Inventory for U.S. States, 2009

Source: Livestock Marketing Information Center

Exhibit 1.1.4-3 depicts the trend in cow numbers for the top five beef states in 1985, 1995, and 2009. Over the period, Texas maintained a considerable lead when compared with other states. Beef cow numbers in Missouri, Nebraska, Oklahoma, and South Dakota fluctuated moderately as the industry moved through price cycles.

Exhibit 1.1.4-3 Top Five Beef Cow States in the United States: 1985, 1995, 2009

Source: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

1.2 Stocker Inventory

USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service collects no direct information regarding the number of stocker calves grown in Missouri. Exhibit 1.2.1-1 estimates the number of stockers that Missouri had on inventory on January 1 for the years 1985-2009.

1.2.1 Missouri Stocker Inventory

The following estimate is derived by taking the inventory of steers and non-replacement heifers over 500 pounds, as reported by USDA, and subtracting the number of cattle already known tobe in feedlot inventory. The assumption is that all calves over 500 pounds that are not kept for breeding or that are not in feedlots are stocker cattle. These animals may be on pasture or dry lot. Between 1985 and 2009, the number of stocker calves in Missouri varied between 490,000 head and 735,000 head (see exhibit 1.2.1-1). In the year 2009, stocker inventory for Missouri was 720,000 head.

Exhibit 1.2.1-1 Missouri Stocker Inventory, 1985-2009

Source: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

1.2.2 Stocker Inventory Trends for Missouri and Surrounding States

Other state stocker inventories are shown in exhibits 1.2.2-1 and 1.2.2-2. Presently,the top three states in terms of stocker iventory are Kansas, Nebraska, and Oklahoma. Over the last 20 years, the stocker business in Iowa has contracted significantly. After an initial decline, Nebraska stocker numbers sharply increased to place it among the top three stocker states. Other major stocker states (Tennessee, Kentucky, Illinois, and Missouri) have had relatively stable stocker inventories over the 25-year period.

Exhibit 1.2.2­1 Stocker Inventory for Missouri, Iowa, Oklahoma, Nebraska, and Kansas

Source: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Exhibit 1.2.2-2 Stocker Inventory for Tennessee, Kentucky, Arkansas, and Illinois

Source: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

1.2.3 Pastureland Potential Annual Stocking Rates by Missouri County

Using the 2007 Census of Agriculture statistics for pasture acreage and USDA-NASS beef cow inventories, an overall potential annual stocking rate by county is estimated.Missouri had 1,858,684 acres of cropland pasture, 1,866,337 acres of woodland

Exhibit 1.2.31 Potential Annual Stocking Rates by High Beef Inv. Counties, 2007

Counties	Cropland Used Only For Pasture Or Grazing	Woodland Pastured	Pastureland And Rangeland Other Than Cropland AndWoodlandPastured	Beef Cow Inventory	Potential Annual Pastureland, All Types-Stocking Rate (acres/cow/year)
Barry	31,869	30,791	113,402	47,600	3.70
Barton	16,507	9,938	74,326	24,000	4.20
Bates	30,595	16,312	143,473	40,000	4.76
Callaway	16,106	21,279	77,798	24,500	4.70
Cass	17,532	9,682	82,982	26,500	4.16
Cedar	13,525	20,661	82,354	28,000	4.16
Christian	21,001	19,102	71,100	26,000	4.28
Dade	15,136	20,565	114,815	35,000	4.30
Dallas	21,205	33,452	72,285	23,000	5.52
Douglas	23,552	42,862	101,275	25,000	6.71
Franklin	22,322	22,031	66,449	22,700	4.88
Greene	34,401	20,891	83,020	34,400	4.02
Harrison	25,299	12,849	90,200	28,500	4.50
Henry	25,657	13,683	117,418	33,500	4.68
Howell	29,065	38,496	181,468	41,200	6.04
Jasper	14,855	12,040	88,631	26,500	4.36
Johnson	26,129	19,464	121,759	39,700	4.22
Laclede	25,389	45,372	108,219	28,500	6.28
Lawrence	30,001	18,723	126,177	46,000	3.80
Linn	23,448	9,864	82,384	29,200	3.96
Macon	26,529	16,407	98,584	28,000	5.05
Maries	18,224	38,234	89,880	23,100	6.33
McDonald	13,727	30,542	83,389	28,200	4.53
Miller	21,299	50,397	81,820	31,800	4.83
Moniteau	22,918	23,343	69,372	26,800	4.31
Newton	19,908	19,701	93,902	38,200	3.50
Nodaway	34,776	10,394	107,950	38,800	3.95
Oregon	17,250	24,905	107,799	25,700	5.83
Osage	22,578	52,175	86,520	33,500	4.81
Ozark	27.348	35.140	106,391	23.000	7.34
Pettis	25,302	19,185	91,477	28,800	4.72
Polk	39,059	45,681	133,860	52,000	4.20
St.Clair	21,451	27,719	80,910	29,200	4.45
Sullivan	30,499	14,926	126,402	32,000	5.37
Texas	35,299	45,880	148,257	46,500	4.93
Vernon	33,229	18,046	128,531	33,000	5.45
Webster	22,561	35,749	100,136	25,500	6.21
Wright	30,915	41,635	112,850	26,000	7.13

Exhibit 1.2.3-2 Potential Annual Stocking Rates by Medium Beef Inv. Counties, 2007

Counties	Cropland Used Only For Pasture Or Grazing	Woodland Pastured	Pastureland And Rangeland Other Than Cropland AndWoodlandPastured	Beef Cow Inventory	Potential Annual Pastureland, All Types-Stocking Rate (acres/cow/year)
Adair	19,223	13,386	94,226	19,500	6.50
Audrain	11,727	8,107	42,271	13,200	4.70
Benton	16,538	30,504	74,373	21,400	5.67
Bollinger	1,081	20,873	47,635	19,200	4.41
Boone	17,088	13,137	54,510	19,000	4.46
Caldwell	18,060	7,994	55,373	17,900	4.55
Camden	10,699	31,067	53,453	15,500	6.14
Cape Girardeau	17,037	11,849	42,328	19,900	3.58
Carroll	26,467	7,485	50,442	15,600	5.41
Chariton	18,246	6,600	6,913	19,100	4.80
Clinton	11,847	6,593	54,169	17,900	4.06
Cole	15,319	26,163	50,769	22,000	4.19
Cooper	19,234	18,797	62,895	22,000	4.59
Crawford	17,475	27,278	64,395	15,200	7.18
Daviess	16,426	11,295	65,210	16,800	5.53
De Kalb	18,155	7,739	61,125	17,000	5.12
Dent	15,494	22,643	71,729	20,500	5.36
Gasconade	14,436	23,474	48,447	15,300	5.64
Gentry	16,489	6,815	63,864	19,500	4.47
Hickory	9,446	24,948	50,794	16,000	5.32
Howard1	7,289	12,778	49,924	15,000	5.33
Lafayette	10,563	7,976	47,288	18,000	3.66
Mercer	17,685	8,226	49,126	6,000	4.69
Monroe	15,445	13,942	44,555	18,700	3.95
Morgan	20,373	22,828	68,070	22,500	4.95
Perry	14,055	15,417	37,950	14,200	4.75
Phelps	20,588	23,910	59,380	18,200	5.71
Pike	16,200	18,041	47,384	15,700	5.20
Pulaski	12,928	24,236	44,874	12,800	6.41
Putnam	20,544	9,518	95,260	22,100	6.12
Randolph	11,727	11,858	51,331	15,000	4.99
Ray	15,446	14,678	65,511	18,500	5.17
Saline	17,437	14,272	39,882	13,600	5.26
Schuyler	16,006	4,985	52,308	15,000	4.89
St.Francois	10,508	13,795	28,993	13,000	4.10
Ste.Genevieve	12,479	12,969	33,215	13,000	4.51
Stone	12,860	16,503	53,240	14,100	5.86
Taney	6,641	24,236	43,967	13,500	5.54

Exhibit 1.2.3-3 Potential Annual Stocking Rates by Low Beef Inv. Counties, 2007

Counties	Cropland Used Only For Pasture Or Grazing	Woodland Pastured	Pastureland And Rangeland Other Than Cropland AndWoodlandPastured	Beef Cow Inventory	Potential Annual Pastureland, All Types-Stocking Rate (acres/cow/year)
Andrew	11,437	6,375	32,877	11,000	4.61
Atchison	8,370	2,475	17,369	7,700	3.66
Buchanan	7,489	4,295	27,690	9,900	3.99
Butler	4,328	6,232	10,574	5,800	3.64
Carter	4,740	7,226	17,550	5,100	5.79
Clark	17,415	11,011	29,762	10,300	5.65
Clay	6,735	6,235	49,624	9,500	6.59
Dunklin	4,137	496	2,555	1,200	5.99
Grundy	12,317	5,815	38,229	12,000	4.70
Holt	4,435	3,865	11,897	6,100	3.31
Iron	7,899	7,927	22,544	5,000	7.67
Jackson	7,329	3,209	19,168	6,100	4.87
Jefferson	5,934	9,891	21,968	6,000	6.30
Knox	20,112	6,550	38,059	11,600	5.58
Lewis	13,256	8,857	30,992	10,800	4.92
Lincoln	11,080	10,100	28,775	11,200	4.46
Livingston	15,133	5,497	43,388	11,500	5.57
Madison	6,748	10,212	27,219	10,000	4.42
Marion	9,234	9,799	27,859	10,700	4.38
Mississippi	1,198	139	933	1,300	1.75
Montgomery	10,599	10,140	32,619	10,500	5.08
NewMadrid	3,522	(D)	(D)	600	Notavailable
Pemiscot	3,925	(D)	(D)	300	Notavailable
Platte	7,882	6,197	25,120	8,500	4.61
Ralls	11,816	10,580	27,281	9,200	5.40
Reynolds	11,543	12,333	30,407	6,000	9.05
Ripley	13,873	22,454	36,602	11,200	6.51
Scotland	13,660	5,537	34,126	9,800	5.44
Scott	5,887	2,240	10,050	3,900	4.66
Shannon	11,592	19,697	36,638	12,500	5.43
Shelby	13,266	9,614	36,527	12,000	4.95
St. Charles	4,331	2,945	8,482	4,000	3.94
St. Louis	2,194	717	2,766	700	8.11
Stoddard	8,745	1,915	15,920	7,000	3.80
Warren	6,013	6,933	19,838	6,000	5.46
Washington	11,067	17,754	38,339	10,200	6.58
Wayne	6,250	7,848	31,676	7,100	6.45
Worth	12,466	7,304	42,430	12,400	5.02

The number of potential beef cows stocked per acre varies tremendously across Missouri counties. However, there are some interesting differences in the top five cattle counties, as shown in exhibit 1.2.3-4. Barry County, with a beef cow population of 47,600, had the lowest potential stocking rate (fewest number of acres needed per cow) in the top five cattle counties at 3.70 acres per cow. Lawrence and Barry Counties are major poultry producing counties. The ready availability of poultry litter for use as a pasture fertilizer contributed to greater forage production and may have permitted their relatively low potential annual stockin rates.

Exhibit 1.2.3-4 Annual Stocking Rates in Top 5 Beef Cow Counties, 2007

County	Beef Cow Inventory (head)	Potential Annual Pastureland, All Types-Stocking Rate (acres/cow/year)
Polk	52,000	4.20
Barry	47,600	3.70
Texas	46,500	4.93
Lawrence	46,000	3.80
Howell	41,200	6.04

Sources:USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service and 2007 Census of Agriculture

1.3 Beef Cow Operations in Missouri

Thousands of small cattle herd operations control approximately 35% of Missouri's cattle inventory. This characteristic has implications for technology adoption and or market channel innovation for Missouri feeder calf producers. Section 1.3.1 compares the size of Missouri cattle operations verses the number of cattle controlled by that particular demographic group. In section 1.3.2, the same contrasts are highlighted for the U.S.

1.3.1 Missouri Beef Cow Operations and Inventory

Around 75% of the beef operations in Missouri have less than 50 head of cattle. These operations hold 35% of the cattle in the state. Beef operations with 50 to 99 head of cattle account for only 16% of the beef cattle operations but they hold 25% of the cattle inventory. Combined, these two categories comprise 91% of all of the beef operations in the state and they hold 60% of the inventory.

Exhibit 1.3.1­1 Missouri Beef Cattle Operations, by Size & Inventory, 2007

Classification	1­49 Head	50­99 Head	100­499 Head	500+ Head
Number of Operations	39,000	8,100	4,750	1500
Percent of Operations	75%	16%	9%	.3%
Percent of Inventory	35%	25%	35%	5%

Source: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Operations with 100 to 499 head of cattle make up 9% of the farms but they represent 35% of the cattle. Beef operations in Missouri with more than 500 head in inventory make up less than 0.3% of the total number of operations and control about 5% of the inventory.

Figure 1.3.1-2 Comparison between Missouri Beef Cattle Inventory and Beef

Source: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

1.3.2 U.S. Beef Cow Operations and Inventory

The demographic trends in U.S. beef cow operations and their inventory follow closely those in Missouri. Beef cow operations with an inventory from inventory 1 to 49 head represent 79% of the total number of beef cow operations in the country. Collectively, they own 29% of the U.S. beef cow inventory. The largest percentage of inventory (38%) comes from beef cow producers with herd sizes between 100-499 head. 

Exhibit 1.3.2-1 U.S. Beef Cattle Inventory and Beef Cattle Operations, 2008

Source: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

1.3.3 U.S. Beef Production per Head

The amount of beef produced per harvested calf in the U.S. has trended strongly upward during the last few decades (exhibit1.3.3-1). Beef production per harvested animal is calculated by dividing annual commercial beef production by annualcommercial cattle slaughter.

Exhibit 1.3.3-1 Commercial Beef Production per Harvested Calf in the U.S.

Source: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

1.3.4 U.S. Beef Production per Head and U.S. Beef Cow Inventory

As beef production efficiency has increased over the last 20 years, the U.S. beef cow inventory has generally decreased. Exhibit 1.3.4-1 shows the beef production per beef cow in the U.S. from 1985 to 2008. If this trend continues in the future, there may be a marked decrease in the physical feedlot space required to fulfill domestic and export demand for beef. Reduced demand for feedlot space will put pressure on lower efficiency feedlots initially as they compete for animals. Ultimately, a continuation of this trend will have downside pressure on prices encouraging larger and more efficient operations.

Exhibit 1.3.4-1 Commercial Beef Production per U.S. Beef Cow

Source: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Exhibit 1.3.4-2 U.S. Commercial Beef Production/Harvested Calf vs. U.S. Beef Cow Inventory

Source: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

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