Commercial Agriculture Program

 

The Missouri Beef Audit:

Chapter 1: Historical Economic, Structural, and Competitive Trend Analysis

June 2009

1.1 Characteristics of Missouri's Beef Industry

Commercial beef cattle operationsare organized in three basic ways: cow-calf, stocker, and fed cattle operations. A break down of cattle inventory by size category is provided in exhibit 1.1-1. Inventory in cow-calf operations include beef cows, calves under 500 pounds, beef cow replacements, and bulls 500 pounds and over. Stockers included other heifers (non-replacements) and steers over 500 pounds, minus cattle on feed. Dairy cattle make up the remainder of cattle reported. In January 2009, 78% of Missouri’s total cattle inventories were held by cow-calf operations, 17% of the inventory held as stockers, and less than 2% of the inventory was cattle on feed.

Exhibit 1.1­1 Cattle and Calves in Missouri, Number on Farm, 2005­2009

Class20052006200720082009
 (Thousand Head)
All Cattle & Calves 4,4004,500 4,450 4,250 4,250
All Cows That HaveCalved 2,2402,320 2,260 2,180 2,100
Beef Cows 2,1212,206 2,146 2,070 1,992
Dairy Cows 119 114 114 110 108
Heifers-500 Pounds & Over 630 670 670 610 630
Beef Cow Replacements 290 340 330 300 320
Milk Cow Replacements 65 70 70 60 40
Other Heifers 275 260 270 250 270
Steers- 500Pounds & Over 460 450 460 440 510
Bulls- 500 Pounds & Over 120 130 120 110 110
Calves Under 500 Pounds 950 930 940 930 900
Cattle andCalves on Feed 1/ 70 70 75 65 60
1/ Also included in the classes above
Source: USDA, Natioonal Agricultural Statistics Service

Exhibit 1.1-2 Missouri Cattle Flow Chart in 2008

Source: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service and Economic Reseearch Service

The Missouri cattle flowchart depicts a snapshot of the flow of cattle and calves from Missoouri’s farms into growing, finishing, and marketing channels,including how much money flows into the various support industries. USDA estimates from 2008 shape the backbone of this snapshot; however, differing estimation dates and derivation techniques may cause the estimates to be inconsistent with official estimates.

Appeendix A contains a copy of this flowchart and all the supporting references, derivations, and weblinks to the data sources.

1.1.1 Evolution as a Cow­Calf State

Over the last century, many Missouri farmers accepted off-farm jobs in addition to their farming activities. Beef cow-calf operations were manageable as small or part-time farms because they required relatively little labor except when hay feeding was necessary and during calving. Because cow-calf enterprises fit well with part-time farmers' available labor and management, Missouri grew as a cow-calf state.

As exhibit 1.1.1-1 depicts, the states with the most beef cow operations are also the states with the most farms. States with large numbers of small farms such as Texas, Kentucky and Oklahoma are also major beef cow states. Missouri ranks second in the nation in the number of farm operations and beef cow operations.

Like most of the other top ranking beef cow states, close to half of the farms in Missouri are beef cow operations. More than 90% of the beef cow operations in Missouri have less than 100 cows.

Missouri had 107,800 farms in 2007. Fifty-five percent, or 59,000 of those, had cattle (beef or dairy) on them. Eighty-eight percent of the cattle farms were beef cow operations, composing 52,000 of the 59,000 cattle farms.

Exhibit 1.1.1-1 States with Large Numbers of Farms and Beef Operations, 2007

State
U.S. rank in number of farms
U.S. rank in beef cow operations
Number of farms
Number of beef cow operations
Beef cow operations as a % of total farms
Beef cow operations with less than 100 cows as a % of total farms
Beef cow operations with less than 100 cows as a % of beef operations
Texas
1
1
247,500
132,000
53%
49%
91%
Missouri
2
2
107.800
52,000
48%
44%
91%
Iowa
3
10
92.600
25,000
27%
20%
75%
Oklahoma
4
3
86.600
47,000
54%
49%
90%
Kentucky
5
5
85,300
38,000
45%
42%
95%
Minnesota
6
19
81,000
14,400
18%
17%
95%
California
6
25
81,000
11,800
15%
13%
88%
Source: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Because of the pasture resources and the large number of small farms, Missouri has become a major producer of feeder calves. During the 20th century, Missouri's national importance as a feeder calf producer grew. In 1920, 3.2% of the beef cows in the United States were in Missouri (exhibit 1.1.1-2). By the year 2009, Missouri cattlemen held 6.3% of the nation's cow herd.

Exhibit 1.1.1-2 Comparisons of U.S. and Missouri Beef Cow Inventories

Year
U.S. Beef Cows
Missouri Beef Cows
MO as % of U.S. Beef Cows
1920
12,525,000
395,000
3.2%
1930
9,162,000
338,000
3.7%
1940
10,676,000
429,000
4.0%
1950
16,743,000
594,000
3.5%
1960
26,344,000
1,135,000
4.3%
1970
36,689,600
1,910,000
5.2%
1980
37,107,400
2,278,000
6.1%
1990
32,454,700
1,914,000
5.9%
2000
33,575,000
2,062,000
6.1%
2009
31,671,300
1,992,000
6.3%
Source: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Location of Missouri’s Beef Industry

Beef cows are located in all 114 counties in Missouri. The counties with the highest populations of beef cows are concentrated in the southwest and south central regions of the state. The distribution of beef cows by county are shown in exhibit 1.1.1-3.

Exhibit 1.1.1-3 Beef Cow Numbers in Missouri Counties - January 1, 2008

Beef Cow Numbers in Missouri Counties

Trends in Beef Cow Locations in Missouri

Trends in the geographic distribution ofbeef cows in Missouri are illustrated inexhibit 1.1.1-4. Regions are those defined by the USDA - National Agricultural Statistics Service. From 1990 to 2000, beef cow numbers increased in seven out of the nine regions. From 2000 to 2009, beef cow numbers decreased in all regions except the northeast and east regions. The central region held the largest percentage of Missouri's beef cow inventory in 2009, with 23% of Missouri's total beef cow inventory.

Exhibit 1.1.1-4 Changes in Missouri Beef Cow Inventory, by Regions, 1990 to 2009

Changes in Missouri Beef Cow Inventory Source: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

The top ten Missouri beef cow counties in 2009 have shown some interesting trends in beef cow numbers since 1990. Although Lawrence County is currenty the Missouri leader in beef cow numbers, it made a remarkable increase from 1990 to 2009 to gain the position it is in today. As depicted inexhibit 1.1.1-5 several of the top 10 counties show large changes in the 1990's.

Exhibit 1.1.1-5 Top 10 Beef Cow Counties in Missouri

Top 10 Beef Cow Counties in Missouri Source: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

During the decade of the 1990's, several Missouri counties with large numbers of dairy cattle experienced a substitution of beef cows for dairy cows. Three counties inparticular demonstrate this trend: Texas, Lawrence, and Barry Counties. These three counties are among the top ten beef-producing counties in Missouri.

Exhibit 1.1.1-6 Shift from Dairy to Beef Cattle in Major Cattle Counties

Shift from Dairy to Beef Cattle in Major Cattle Counties Source: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

The U.S. and Missouri dairy operations are consolidating more rapidly into fewer, larger farms than are cow-calf operations in the U.S. and Missouri. As dairy farmers discontinue their dairy operations, they may continue to operate their farms, but replace dairy cows with beef cows. One consequence of this substitution is a drop in gross income from approximately $2,500 per cow per year with dairy cows to approximately $550 per cow per year with beef cows. A corresponding drop in purchased imputs is another consequence of converting from dairy to beef. Unless other agricultural enterprises grow in these counties, the overall impact will be a decline in economic activity from this transition.

1.1.2 Changes in Beef Cow Inventory

Cattle inventory numbers in the U.S. and Missouri tend to peak in roughly 10-year increments, causing low prices and liquidation until the stage is set for the next expansion phase of the 10-year cycle. Missouri’s 2009 beef cow inventory is only slightly ower (0.4%) than it was in 1985 (exhibit 1.1.2-1) while the U.S. inventory is 10% lower.

Exhibit 1.1.2-1 Change in Beef Cow Inventory since 1985

Change in Beef Cow Inventory since 1985 Source: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

1.1.3 Cattle Cycle

The U.S. cattle inventory tends to move in acyclical pattern averaging 10-12 years in length. Over the last 130 years, the shortest U.S. cattle cycle was 7 years in length and the longest lasted 16 years. The cyclical variation in inventory produces a countercyclical varation in cattle prices. The simplest explanation is that cow-calf producers tend to act as if the current calf prices will continue in to the future. When cattle prices are high, beef producers respond by retaining heifer calves to use as replacements, in the hope that a larger herd will result in a larger income. This rarely works well since the financial reward for retaining heifers will be two to three years away and current market revenues from the sale of heifers will be sacrificed. As the number of beef cows increases nationally, the number of slaughter cattle being produced consequently increases. As a result, prices are eventually depressed as cattle and beef products exceed supply. As beef cattle prices decline below break-even levels, beef producers respond by reducing herd size or liquidating to minimize losses.

Exhibit 1.1.3­1 U.S. Cattle Cycle

U.S. Cattle Cycle Source: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service and Livestock Marketing Information Center

A corollary explanation is that cash flow needs drive heifer retention and thus herd expansion. When cattle prices are low, beef producers must sell proportionally more oftheir heifer crop in order to meet cash flow obligations. The net effect is that the number of heifers available for use as replacements is limited and herd size remains static or contracts. As prices increase, fewer total calves must be sold to meet cash flow obligations. Beefproducers respond by retaining a larger proportion of the heifer calves they produce to use as replacements. It is likely that the inventory cycles typical of the beef industry results from a combination of producer attitudes toward cattle prices and the need to meet cash-flow obligations.

Exhibit 1.1.3-2 depicts two decades of cattle prices and inventories in Missouri and demonstrates the manner in which cattle owners respond to price cycles. Worthy of note is that the top of the price cycle in 1991 came soon after the trough of the inventory cycle. Ten years later in 2001, another price peak followed a relatively low cow inventory.

Exhibit 1.1.3-2 Missouri Cattle Cycle

Missouri Cattle Cycle Source: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Beef cow inventories in states surrounding Missouri are shown in exhibit 1.1.3-3. All of these states except Iowa and Illinois increased beef cow inventory between 1990 and 2000. Between 1990 and 2000, the U.S. cow herd gained 4% while Missouri gained 8%. Only three states below (Kansas, Kentucky, and Oklahoma) increased their herds between the years 2000 and 2009.

Exhibit 1.1.3­3 Changes in Select States Beef Cow Inventory

State
Thousand Head
Percent Change
1990
2000
2009
Beef Cows 1990-00
Beef Cows 2000-09
Arkansas
901
928
891
3% increase
4% decrease
Illinois
493
480
480
3% decrease
-
Iowa
1,115
1,025
925
8% decrease
10% decrease
Kansas
1,362
1,492
1,508
10% increase
11% increase
Kentucky
1,045
1,050
1,114
1% increase
6% increase
Missouri
1,914
2,062
1,992
8% increase
4% decrease
Nebraska
1,760
1,974
1,851
12% increase
6% decrease
Oklahoma
1,860
1,898
2,038
2% increase
7% increase
Tennessee
1,010
1,034
951
2% increase
8% decrease
Texas
5,110
5,430
5,170
6% increase
5% decrease
United States
32,455
33,575
31,671
4% increase
6% decrease
Source: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Major grain producing states tend to decrease cattle numbers the fastest when beef cattle prices are unfavorable and are among the slowest to increase inventory when prices are strong. Within Missouri, the same phenomenon can be observed among counties. Those that produce the most grain also decreased cattle numbers the most during the 1980’s and increased cattle inventories the least during the 1990’s. With each passing decade, producers become more specialized. Crop farmers concentrate more on crops. Cattlemen focus more on cattle. Because cattlemen are more attuned to the rhythms ofthe commodity cycle of their particular industry, they may respond the fastest to price incentives.

1.1.4 Top Beef Cow States

Exhibit 1.1.4-1 compares the number of beef cows in the top 10 cow-calf states and the states surrounding Missouri. Texas controls more than twice the beef cow inventory of any other state. Missouri currently ranks number three in the U.S. in beef cow inventory in the year 2009. Missouri, Oklahoma, and Nebraska closely compete with one another for the number two position.

Exhibit 1.1.4-1 Top Ten Beef Cow Inventory and MO's Surrounding States, 2009

Top Ten Beef Cow Inventory and MO's Surrounding States, 2009 Source: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Exhibit 1.1.4-2 Beef Cow Inventory for U.S. States, 2009

Beef Cow Inventory for U.S. States, 2009 Source: Livestock Marketing Information Center

Exhibit 1.1.4-3 depicts the trend in cow numbers for the top five beef states in 1985, 1995, and 2009. Over the period, Texas maintained a considerable lead when compared with other states. Beef cow numbers in Missouri, Nebraska, Oklahoma, and South Dakota fluctuated moderately as the industry moved through price cycles.

Exhibit 1.1.4-3 Top Five Beef Cow States in the United States: 1985, 1995, 2009

Top Five Beef Cow States in the United States Source: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

1.2 Stocker Inventory

USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service collects no direct information regarding the number of stocker calves grown in Missouri. Exhibit 1.2.1-1 estimates the number of stockers that Missouri had on inventory on January 1 for the years 1985-2009.

1.2.1 Missouri Stocker Inventory

The following estimate is derived by taking the inventory of steers and non-replacement heifers over 500 pounds, as reported by USDA, and subtracting the number of cattle already known tobe in feedlot inventory. The assumption is that all calves over 500 pounds that are not kept for breeding or that are not in feedlots are stocker cattle. These animals may be on pasture or dry lot. Between 1985 and 2009, the number of stocker calves in Missouri varied between 490,000 head and 735,000 head (see exhibit 1.2.1-1). In the year 2009, stocker inventory for Missouri was 720,000 head.

Exhibit 1.2.1-1 Missouri Stocker Inventory, 1985-2009

Missouri Stocker Inventory, 1985-2009 Source: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

1.2.2 Stocker Inventory Trends for Missouri and Surrounding States

Other state stocker inventories are shown in exhibits 1.2.2-1 and 1.2.2-2. Presently,the top three states in terms of stocker iventory are Kansas, Nebraska, and Oklahoma. Over the last 20 years, the stocker business in Iowa has contracted significantly. After an initial decline, Nebraska stocker numbers sharply increased to place it among the top three stocker states. Other major stocker states (Tennessee, Kentucky, Illinois, and Missouri) have had relatively stable stocker inventories over the 25-year period.

Exhibit 1.2.2­1 Stocker Inventory for Missouri, Iowa, Oklahoma, Nebraska, and Kansas

Stocker Inventory for Missouri, Iowa, Oklahoma, Nebraska, and Kansas Source: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Exhibit 1.2.2-2 Stocker Inventory for Tennessee, Kentucky, Arkansas, and Illinois

Stocker Inventory for Tennessee, Kentucky, Arkansas, and Illinois Source: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

1.2.3 Pastureland Potential Annual Stocking Rates by Missouri County

Using the 2007 Census of Agriculture statistics for pasture acreage and USDA-NASS beef cow inventories, an overall potential annual stocking rate by county is estimated.Missouri had 1,858,684 acres of cropland pasture, 1,866,337 acres of woodland

Exhibit 1.2.31 Potential Annual Stocking Rates by High Beef Inv. Counties, 2007

CountiesCropland Used Only For Pasture Or GrazingWoodland PasturedPastureland And Rangeland Other Than Cropland AndWoodlandPasturedBeef Cow InventoryPotential Annual Pastureland, All Types-Stocking Rate (acres/cow/year)
Barry 31,86930,791113,40247,6003.70
Barton 16,507 9,938 74,32624,0004.20
Bates 30,59516,312143,47340,0004.76
Callaway 16,10621,279 77,79824,5004.70
Cass 17,532 9,682 82,98226,5004.16
Cedar 13,52520,661 82,35428,0004.16
Christian 21,00119,102 71,10026,0004.28
Dade 15,13620,565114,81535,0004.30
Dallas 21,20533,452 72,28523,0005.52
Douglas 23,55242,862101,27525,0006.71
Franklin 22,32222,031 66,44922,7004.88
Greene 34,40120,891 83,02034,4004.02
Harrison 25,29912,849 90,20028,5004.50
Henry 25,65713,683117,41833,5004.68
Howell 29,06538,496181,46841,2006.04
Jasper 14,85512,040 88,63126,5004.36
Johnson 26,12919,464121,75939,7004.22
Laclede 25,38945,372108,21928,5006.28
Lawrence 30,00118,723126,17746,0003.80
Linn 23,448 9,864 82,38429,2003.96
Macon 26,52916,407 98,58428,0005.05
Maries 18,22438,234 89,88023,1006.33
McDonald 13,72730,542 83,38928,2004.53
Miller 21,29950,397 81,82031,8004.83
Moniteau 22,91823,343 69,37226,8004.31
Newton 19,90819,701 93,90238,2003.50
Nodaway 34,77610,394107,95038,8003.95
Oregon 17,25024,905107,79925,7005.83
Osage 22,57852,175 86,52033,5004.81
Ozark 27.34835.140106,39123.0007.34
Pettis 25,30219,185 91,47728,8004.72
Polk 39,05945,681133,86052,0004.20
St.Clair 21,45127,719 80,91029,2004.45
Sullivan 30,49914,926126,40232,0005.37
Texas 35,29945,880148,25746,5004.93
Vernon 33,22918,046128,53133,0005.45
Webster 22,56135,749100,13625,5006.21
Wright 30,91541,635112,85026,0007.13

Exhibit 1.2.3-2 Potential Annual Stocking Rates by Medium Beef Inv. Counties, 2007

CountiesCropland Used Only For Pasture Or GrazingWoodland PasturedPastureland And Rangeland Other Than Cropland AndWoodlandPasturedBeef Cow InventoryPotential Annual Pastureland, All Types-Stocking Rate (acres/cow/year)
Adair 19,223 13,386 94,226 19,500 6.50
Audrain 11,727 8,107 42,271 13,200 4.70
Benton 16,538 30,504 74,373 21,400 5.67
Bollinger 1,081 20,873 47,635 19,200 4.41
Boone 17,088 13,137 54,510 19,000 4.46
Caldwell 18,060 7,994 55,373 17,900 4.55
Camden 10,699 31,067 53,453 15,500 6.14
Cape Girardeau 17,037 11,849 42,328 19,900 3.58
Carroll 26,467 7,485 50,442 15,600 5.41
Chariton 18,246 6,600 6,913 19,100 4.80
Clinton 11,847 6,593 54,169 17,900 4.06
Cole 15,319 26,163 50,769 22,000 4.19
Cooper 19,234 18,797 62,895 22,000 4.59
Crawford 17,475 27,278 64,395 15,200 7.18
Daviess 16,426 11,295 65,210 16,800 5.53
De Kalb 18,155 7,739 61,125 17,000 5.12
Dent 15,494 22,643 71,729 20,500 5.36
Gasconade 14,436 23,474 48,447 15,300 5.64
Gentry 16,489 6,815 63,864 19,500 4.47
Hickory 9,446 24,948 50,794 16,000 5.32
Howard1 7,289 12,778 49,924 15,000 5.33
Lafayette 10,563 7,976 47,288 18,000 3.66
Mercer 17,685 8,226 49,126 6,000 4.69
Monroe 15,445 13,942 44,555 18,700 3.95
Morgan 20,373 22,828 68,070 22,500 4.95
Perry 14,055 15,417 37,950 14,200 4.75
Phelps 20,588 23,910 59,380 18,200 5.71
Pike 16,200 18,041 47,384 15,700 5.20
Pulaski 12,928 24,236 44,874 12,800 6.41
Putnam 20,544 9,518 95,260 22,100 6.12
Randolph 11,727 11,858 51,331 15,000 4.99
Ray 15,446 14,678 65,511 18,500 5.17
Saline 17,437 14,272 39,882 13,600 5.26
Schuyler 16,006 4,985 52,308 15,000 4.89
St.Francois 10,508 13,795 28,993 13,000 4.10
Ste.Genevieve 12,479 12,969 33,215 13,000 4.51
Stone 12,860 16,503 53,240 14,100 5.86
Taney 6,641 24,236 43,967 13,500 5.54

Exhibit 1.2.3-3 Potential Annual Stocking Rates by Low Beef Inv. Counties, 2007

CountiesCropland Used Only For Pasture Or GrazingWoodland PasturedPastureland And Rangeland Other Than Cropland AndWoodlandPasturedBeef Cow InventoryPotential Annual Pastureland, All Types-Stocking Rate (acres/cow/year)
Andrew 11,437 6,37532,877 11,000 4.61
Atchison 8,370 2,47517,369 7,700 3.66
Buchanan 7,489 4,29527,690 9,900 3.99
Butler 4,328 6,23210,574 5,800 3.64
Carter 4,740 7,22617,550 5,100 5.79
Clark 17,41511,01129,762 10,300 5.65
Clay 6,735 6,23549,624 9,500 6.59
Dunklin 4,137 496 2,555 1,200 5.99
Grundy 12,317 5,81538,229 12,000 4.70
Holt 4,435 3,86511,897 6,100 3.31
Iron 7,899 7,92722,544 5,000 7.67
Jackson 7,329 3,20919,168 6,100 4.87
Jefferson 5,934 9,89121,968 6,000 6.30
Knox 20,112 6,55038,059 11,600 5.58
Lewis 13,256 8,85730,992 10,800 4.92
Lincoln 11,08010,10028,775 11,200 4.46
Livingston 15,133 5,49743,388 11,500 5.57
Madison 6,74810,21227,219 10,000 4.42
Marion 9,234 9,79927,859 10,700 4.38
Mississippi 1,198 139 933 1,300 1.75
Montgomery 10,59910,14032,619 10,500 5.08
NewMadrid 3,522 (D) (D) 600 Notavailable
Pemiscot 3,925 (D) (D) 300 Notavailable
Platte 7,882 6,19725,120 8,500 4.61
Ralls 11,81610,58027,281 9,200 5.40
Reynolds 11,54312,33330,407 6,000 9.05
Ripley 13,87322,45436,602 11,200 6.51
Scotland 13,660 5,53734,126 9,800 5.44
Scott 5,887 2,24010,050 3,900 4.66
Shannon 11,59219,69736,638 12,500 5.43
Shelby 13,266 9,61436,527 12,000 4.95
St. Charles 4,331 2,945 8,482 4,000 3.94
St. Louis 2,194 717 2,766 700 8.11
Stoddard 8,745 1,91515,920 7,000 3.80
Warren 6,013 6,93319,838 6,000 5.46
Washington 11,06717,75438,339 10,200 6.58
Wayne 6,250 7,84831,676 7,100 6.45
Worth 12,466 7,30442,430 12,400 5.02

The number of potential beef cows stocked per acre varies tremendously across Missouri counties. However, there are some interesting differences in the top five cattle counties, as shown in exhibit 1.2.3-4. Barry County, with a beef cow population of 47,600, had the lowest potential stocking rate (fewest number of acres needed per cow) in the top five cattle counties at 3.70 acres per cow. Lawrence and Barry Counties are major poultry producing counties. The ready availability of poultry litter for use as a pasture fertilizer contributed to greater forage production and may have permitted their relatively low potential annual stockin rates.

Exhibit 1.2.3-4 Annual Stocking Rates in Top 5 Beef Cow Counties, 2007

County Beef Cow Inventory (head) Potential Annual Pastureland, All Types-Stocking Rate (acres/cow/year)
Polk 52,0004.20
Barry 47,6003.70
Texas 46,5004.93
Lawrence 46,0003.80
Howell 41,2006.04
Sources:USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service and 2007 Census of Agriculture

1.3 Beef Cow Operations in Missouri

Thousands of small cattle herd operations control approximately 35% of Missouri's cattle inventory. This characteristic has implications for technology adoption and or market channel innovation for Missouri feeder calf producers. Section 1.3.1 compares the size of Missouri cattle operations verses the number of cattle controlled by that particular demographic group. In section 1.3.2, the same contrasts are highlighted for the U.S.

1.3.1 Missouri Beef Cow Operations and Inventory

Around 75% of the beef operations in Missouri have less than 50 head of cattle. These operations hold 35% of the cattle in the state. Beef operations with 50 to 99 head of cattle account for only 16% of the beef cattle operations but they hold 25% of the cattle inventory. Combined, these two categories comprise 91% of all of the beef operations in the state and they hold 60% of the inventory.

Exhibit 1.3.1­1 Missouri Beef Cattle Operations, by Size & Inventory, 2007

Classification 1­49 Head 50­99 Head 100­499 Head 500+ Head
Number of Operations 39,000 8,100 4,750 1500
Percent of Operations 75% 16% 9% .3%
Percent of Inventory 35% 25% 35% 5%
Source: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Operations with 100 to 499 head of cattle make up 9% of the farms but they represent 35% of the cattle. Beef operations in Missouri with more than 500 head in inventory make up less than 0.3% of the total number of operations and control about 5% of the inventory.

Figure 1.3.1-2 Comparison between Missouri Beef Cattle Inventory and Beef

Comparison between Missouri Beef Cattle Inventory and Beef Source: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

1.3.2 U.S. Beef Cow Operations and Inventory

The demographic trends in U.S. beef cow operations and their inventory follow closely those in Missouri. Beef cow operations with an inventory from inventory 1 to 49 head represent 79% of the total number of beef cow operations in the country. Collectively, they own 29% of the U.S. beef cow inventory. The largest percentage of inventory (38%) comes from beef cow producers with herd sizes between 100-499 head. 

Exhibit 1.3.2-1 U.S. Beef Cattle Inventory and Beef Cattle Operations, 2008

U.S. Beef Cattle Inventory and Beef Cattle Operations, 2008 Source: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

1.3.3 U.S. Beef Production per Head

The amount of beef produced per harvested calf in the U.S. has trended strongly upward during the last few decades (exhibit1.3.3-1). Beef production per harvested animal is calculated by dividing annual commercial beef production by annualcommercial cattle slaughter.

Exhibit 1.3.3-1 Commercial Beef Production per Harvested Calf in the U.S.

Commercial Beef Production per Harvested Calf in the U.S. Source: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

1.3.4 U.S. Beef Production per Head and U.S. Beef Cow Inventory

As beef production efficiency has increased over the last 20 years, the U.S. beef cow inventory has generally decreased. Exhibit 1.3.4-1 shows the beef production per beef cow in the U.S. from 1985 to 2008. If this trend continues in the future, there may be a marked decrease in the physical feedlot space required to fulfill domestic and export demand for beef. Reduced demand for feedlot space will put pressure on lower efficiency feedlots initially as they compete for animals. Ultimately, a continuation of this trend will have downside pressure on prices encouraging larger and more efficient operations.

Exhibit 1.3.4-1 Commercial Beef Production per U.S. Beef Cow

Commercial Beef Production per U.S. Beef Cow Source: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

Exhibit 1.3.4-2 U.S. Commercial Beef Production/Harvested Calf vs. U.S. Beef Cow Inventory

Commercial Beef Production/Harvested Calf vs. U.S. Beef Cow Inventory Source: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

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