Green Horizons

Potential growers needing assistance with decisions about tree spacing, nut harvest and whether to use improved (grafted) or unimproved trees should look to the University of Missouri Center for Agroforestry’s Black Walnut Financial Model. The Center has released an updated version of the model, version 2.0.

The financial model is an Excel spreadsheet, which asks a series of questions designed for inputting data about your orchard. The spreadsheet is available for download at the Web site listed below. Also on this site is a guide to aid in answering the questions.

The model uses a simple algorithm to make estimates about future nut production and tree diameters and should be used to consider how certain management decisions, i.e. tree spacing, will affect the financial performance of the plantation in terms of potential increases and decreases in net present value, internal rate of return and annual equivalent value.

Because of the simplicity of the model, there are several important limitations that must be taken into consideration. This model is limited to a 100-year time frame. The purpose of the model is to provide an indication of the direction of change for certain management decisions (for example, a closer initial spacing versus a wider initial spacing), and a basis for determining which strategy would work best for a certain site (such as, a site that only grows trees at 0.25 inches per year may be best suited for nut production versus a site that grows trees at 0.5 inches per year). In most cases the default cost structures used in the model are sufficient to achieve the analysis desired, since they are held constant throughout the analysis.

For more information or technical help with the model, contact Larry Godsey, Center Economist, University of Missouri Center for Agroforestry, at godseyl@missouri.edu. See the financial model at: http://www.centerforagroforestry.org/profit/walnutfinancialmodel.asp